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Lecture #5 - Developing a Credible Argument

Com20120509reasonablepersontest level of certainty

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Unformatted text preview: Analyze your degree of certainty 5.  Consider the conditions in which your evidence would not support the claim Evaluating the Evidence Evidence: a finding used to support or refute a particular conclusion •  serves the truth •  creates distortion, misinformation, and deception Evaluating the Evidence Is the evidence sufficient? • Enables us to reach an accurate judgment or conclusion Evaluating the Evidence Can the evidence be verified? • Hard: factual statements, expert opinion, statistics • Soft: uninformed opinion or speculation, unscientifically obtained or analyzed data, findings that cannot be replicated or reviewed Interpreting the Evidence Trying to reach the truth of the matter Instead of settling for the most convenient answer, we should pursue the most reasonable answer http://lawiscool.com/2012/05/09/reasonable ­person ­test/ Level of Certainty Definitive truth: Truth, the reality of the matter Probable answer: the answer that stands the best chance of being true or accurate Inconclusive answer: the realization that the truth is far complex than we expected Inductive Reasoning Argues from specific cases to general principles Forms of Induction: •  The IMRAD pattern •  Analogy •  Cause ­effect analysis Deductive Reasoning Applies a general principle to specific cases Premises must be accurate Example, “Don’t expect Bill to write well ­he’s an engineer.” Major premise: (implied) Engineers don’t write well. Minor premise: Bill is an engineer. Conclusion: Bill doesn’t write very well. Avoiding Errors in Reasoning To what extent can these findings be generalized? Is Y really caused by X? How much can the numbers be trusted, and what do they mean? http://www.brunswick.k12.me.us/hdwyer/writing ­numbers/ Avoiding Error...
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