19 Climate Variability

19 Climate Variability - Climate variability GEOG345...

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Climate variability GEOG345 November 14 2006 Textbook: chapter 10 (El Niño and the Southern Oscillation and beyond) chapter 16 (Volcanic Eruptions and Aerosols in the Stratosphere; Climate Change and Variations in Solar Output)
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Climate variability Local, regional and global climate are subject to variations interannual long-term (at the scale of decades and up) Local climate: highest interannual variability Global climate: more “robust”, but long- term variability exists
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Temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere grey shading shows statistical confidence note actual data (blue and red) and the smoothed curve (black) long term trend(s) and short-term (interannual) variability
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Short-term and interannual variability Mt. Pinatubo effect? Average global air temperature
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Fig. 4, p. 75 Interannual variability and normal temperature daily maximum temperatures on March 15 Average (mean) temperature is NOT the most likely (most frequent) temperature!
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Climate variability: causes Externally forced volcanic eruption variations in solar radiation (not in this lecture) changes in atmospheric composition (not in this lecture) Coupled: interactions between the atmosphere and the more slowly varying components of the Earth system El Niño and Southern Oscillation Internally generated: dynamic processes within the atmosphere North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation
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Climate analysis Time series analysis statistical analysis of climate data over the same location taken over a long period of time long-term trends long-term or short-term variability Sufficiently long time period (i.e. data record) is needed for statistically robust analysis (i.e. high confidence level)
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Basic climate statistics Mean or average: X Anomaly: departure from the mean x’ = x – X Variance x’ 2 = (x-X) 2 ( ): time mean Standard deviation or root mean square σ (x) ≡ √ x’ 2 = √ (x-X) 2 Standardized anomaly
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Basic climate statistics (cont.) Correlation
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This note was uploaded on 04/10/2008 for the course GEOG 345 taught by Professor Csiszar during the Fall '06 term at Maryland.

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19 Climate Variability - Climate variability GEOG345...

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