24 Climate Observations and Predictions

24 Climate Observations and Predictions - Climate...

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Climate Observations and Predictions GEOG345 December 6 2006
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – www.ipcc.ch established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) in 1988. assesses on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change its potential impacts options for adaptation and mitigation three Working Groups and a Task Force WG1: scientific aspects WG2: vulnerability and adaptation WG3: limiting greenhouse gas emissions and mitigating climate change Task Force: National Greenhouse Gas Inventories IPCC reports Assessments Special reports Technical reports Methodology papers Supporting material
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IPCC Assessments Third Assessment Report (2001) “In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations” Fourth Assessment Report to be completed by 2007
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Fig. 16-17, p. 449 Observed and modeled temperature change Magnitude of climate (change) signal is small compared to short- term variability. Consistent, long-term observations are needed to detect long-term changes with acceptable uncertainty.
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Climate models General Circulation Models (GCM’s) Atmospheric and oceanic component linked: Coupled GCM Mathematics that describe the laws of physics simplifications parameterizations GCS’s are tested by simulating current conditions Future predictions are made by various assumptions about changes (or no changes) or forcing factors - scenarios
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GCM Components Atmospheric conservation equations (momentum, mass, energy) radiation convection and cloud parameterization boundary layer parameterization Land surface heat balance surface moisture equation land cover, including vegetation Ocean conservation equations (momentum, mass, energy) radiation and heat exchange salinity sea ice
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Fig. 16-18, p. 451 Modeled temperature changes smallest increase (~1.4 º C) larger than that of the 20 th century largest increase (~5.8 º C) larger than ever in the past 10,000 years
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United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; http://unfccc.int/) overall framework for intergovernmental efforts to tackle the challenge posed by climate change 189 countries have ratified Government responsibilities gather and share information on greenhouse gas emissions, national policies and best practices launch national strategies for addressing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to expected impacts, including the provision of financial and technological support to developing countries cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change
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This note was uploaded on 04/10/2008 for the course GEOG 345 taught by Professor Csiszar during the Fall '06 term at Maryland.

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24 Climate Observations and Predictions - Climate...

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