Questio n 2 4 / 4 

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1 4 / 4 points The overall upward or downward pattern of the data in an annual time series will be contained in the ____________ component.   trend   cyclical   irregular   seasonal
Questio n 2 4 / 4  points When using the exponentially weighted moving average for purposes of forecasting rather than smoothing,      
Question 3 4 / 4 points The following is the list of MAD statistics for each of the models you have estimated from time- series data: Model MAD Linear Trend 1.38 Quadratic Trend 1.22 Exponential Trend 1.39 AR(2) 0.71 Based on the MAD criterion, the most appropriate model is      
Question 4 4 / 4 points The following table contains the number of complaints received in a department store for the first 6 months of last year. Month Complaints Jan 36 Feb 45 Mar 81
Apr 108 May 144 Referring to the above table, if a three-term moving average is used to smooth this series, what would be the second calculated term? 36 54 78
Questio n 5 4 / 4  points TABLE 16-4 Given below are EXCEL outputs for various estimated autoregressive models for Coca- Cola's real operating revenues (in billions of dollars) from 1975 to 1998. From the data, we also know that the real operating revenues for 1996, 1997, and 1998 are 11.7909, 11.7757 and, 11.5537, respectively. AR(1) Model: Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.1802077 0.39797154 0.452815546 0.655325119 XLag1 1.011222533 0.049685158 20.35260757 2.64373E-15 AR(2) Model: Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.30047473 0.4407641 0.681713257 0.503646149 X Lag 1 1.17322186 0.234737881 4.998008229 7.98541E-05 X Lag 2 -0.183028189 0.250716669 -0.730020026 0.474283347 AR(3) Model: Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Intercept 0.313043288 0.514437257 0.608515972 0.550890271 XLag1 1.173719587 0.246490594 4.761721601 0.000180926 XLag2 -0.069378567 0.373086508 -0.185958391 0.854678245 XLag3 -0.122123515 0.282031297 -0.433014053 0.670448392 Referring to Table 16-4 and using a 5% level of significance, what is the appropriate AR model for Coca-Cola's real operating revenue?   AR(1)
  AR(2)   AR(3) Any of the  above.  
Question 6 4 / 4 points TABLE 16-8 The president of a chain of department stores believes that her stores' total sales have been showing a linear trend since 1980. She uses Microsoft Excel to obtain the partial output below. The dependent variable is sales (in millions of dollars), while the independent variable is coded years, where 1980 is coded as 0, 1981 is coded as 1, etc. Summary Output Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.604 R Square 0.365 Adjusted R Square 0.316 Standard Error 4.800 Observations                   17                    Coefficients Intercept          31.2 Coded Year         0.78   Referring to Table 16-8, the fitted trend value (in millions of dollars) for 1985 is __________.

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