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project 2 - theoretical probability This is theoretical...

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A=prisoner A B= prisoner B C= prisoner C W=Warden P=pardoned P’=not pardoned 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 .5 .5 .5 .5 .3 .3 .3 Math 1430 Julia Head November 25, 2007 Chapter 8 Project #3 This particular problem took quite a long thought. However I came to the conclusion that the warden of the prison did not give out too much information by telling prisoner A who would be killed. However A does not know that he is the one being pardoned. The problem states that one prisoner will be pardoned at random this gives each prisoner a .333 chance of being pardoned. Only the warden and the governor know who was actually pardoned. The warden does keep this secret however, when asked by prisoner A who is going to die he responds to him that prisoner B will die. This leads to a fifty percent chance of A living and C dying since this is all
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Unformatted text preview: theoretical probability. This is theoretical probability because the prisoners are selected at random. With only one being pardoned this leads to the other two prisoners getting the lights out. So with prisoners A and C left over which one is pardoned. Well the problem later states that to only the warden’s knowledge B or C have to die. Leaving prisoner A as the one that was pardoned. He does not know that he was the one so technically the warden didn’t let all of the information out. He only knows that he has a fifty percent chance of being the pardoned one. So the conclusion is that the warden was correct and prisoner A was in the best position. The tree chart below demonstrates the probability of prisoner A being pardoned. 1...
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