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Economics Article.docx - AS supply-side stresses in the...

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AS supply-side stresses in the wheat market take hold, the country runs the risk of adifficult flour season for the next six months unless it reassesses the situation and takescorrective measures.Current stocks, at around 4.5 million tons — if strategic requirement of one million tons is takenout — are hardly enough to see it through for the rest of the season, provided no unforeseenfactors alter the calculations. Bad weather can exacerbate the situation by delaying the crop.The exact size of the stocks is also a matter of controversy, especially in Sindh. Porous borderwith Afghanistan adds yet another layer of uncertainty to the longevity of these stocks.All these factors, with each one of them individually capable of disturbing the entire nationalcalculation, warrant a reassessment of the supply-demand equation to ensure nothing goes wronguntil the next crop arrives.Punjab, which holds the key to national food security, currently has around 3.5 million tons ofwheat, of which around 22,000 tons are being supplied to mills daily for grinding.Multiplied by 26 days (taking out Sundays, when the Food Department does not supply wheat),

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Sindh, Indus River

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