Abram BallogaReadings 25-26 Memo10/23/2005In Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis,Graham Allison explores the normal assumptions made about government actions with special emphasis on foreign policy. He says that analysts use broad conceptual models to try and explain what happened in a certain scenario, and then they use the same model to try and predict future actions. Most analysts use what Allison calls the Rational Policy Model (Model I) in which the situation is described by showing how a government decided upon its action through considering the “strategic problem that it faced”. Allison argues that there are two other less used models which view a situation from other angles and help more fully describe the outcome of a situation and predict future dilemmas – Organizational Process Model (Model II) and Bureaucratic Politics Model (Model III). Model II observes government behavior as “outputs” of a large and complex structure which delegates out power and acts according to its behavioral norm.
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