problem set4 s06

problem set4 s06 - Eco 572: Research methods in Demography...

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Eco 572: Research methods in Demography Problem Set 4 Due May 10, 2006 [1] Marriage in France The datasets section has data on first marriage frequencies in France obtained from last year's course blackboard site. The data are available in an Excel spreadsheet called FranceAfmPeriodAge.xls and as an ascii file called FranceAfmPeriodAge.dat . In both datasets the rows represent years from 1968 to 2000 and the columns represents ages from 15 to 50. Each entry is the number of first marriages by 10,000 women at the start of the year. Note that these are marriage frequencies, not hazard rates; the denominator includes married as well as single women. Also, age is defined as the age a woman turns in a calendar year, and can be taken to represent on average exact rather than completed years (so there's no need to add 0.5). (a) Compute and plot period total marriage rates (the sum of the marriage frequencies at all ages) and period mean ages at marriage. You should find that the proportion who would ever marry according to these period estimates declined from 88 to a low below 50% in the early nineties, but has recovered a bit since. Period mean age at first marriage as estimated from these frequencies has increased steadily over time (b) Compute the Bongaarts-Feeney tempo-adjusted total first marriage rates. Use numerical derivatives of mean age at first marriage as recommended by B-F, i.e. using years t-1 and t+1 for t. Plot the adjusted and unadjusted TMRs against year and comment. (This plot should be combined with part a.) (c) The series is only 33 years long, so we don't have the complete experience for any cohort! Fortunately most marriages occur well before age 50. Construct an array of cohort marriage
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problem set4 s06 - Eco 572: Research methods in Demography...

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