problem set3 s06

# problem set3 s06 - Eco 572 Research methods in Demography...

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Eco 572: Research methods in Demography Problem Set 3 Due April 26, 2006 [1] Age at Marriage File sipp01w3741.dat in the datasets section has data on age at marriage for women aged 37 to 41 in the 2001 panel Wave2 of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Note that age at marriage is coded as missing for single women. (These data were used in the course last year and have been analyzed by Josh Goldstein.) (a) Compute a life table of entry into marriage including q x , d x , l x , and L x . Treat women married at ages 37 to 41 completed years as single at exact age 37.0 to avoid problems with incomplete exposure. Estimate time lived in the single state up to age 37.0. (b) Use the estimated life table to answer the following questions: (i) What's the probability of marrying by (exact) age 20 ? (ii) by (exact) age 25? (iii) by (exact) age 25 if the woman is single on her 20th birthday? (iv) by (exact) age 25 if the woman is single on her 20th birthday but she will marry eventually? (c) Fit a Hernes model. here is a simple way to do this. In the model the ratio of the hazard to the cumulative marriage rate is h(a)/(1-l(a)) = e -r(a-15) . Estimate the left hand side using the discrete equivalent q x /(1- l x ) , take logs, and regress that on age-15 (using age midpoints) to obtain a preliminary estimate of r . The model also says that logit(1-l(x))=logit(p)-A e -r(x-15) /r where p is the proportion who ever marry. Use your estimate of r to construct the exponential term

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