solution to problem set3

# solution to problem set3 - Eco 572 Research methods in...

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Eco 572: Research methods in Demography Solutions to Problem Set 3 [1] Nuptiality in the U.S. We start by reading the data from the website. . infile age n using /// > , clear (31 observations read) (a) Since these are cohort data and we are only interested in the experience up to age 37, which is complete for women aged 37-41 at interview, we can compute d x directly, just dividing the frequencies by the total number of women. The other life table functions follow directly. The only time we need to make an assumption about the distribution of events in a year of age is in computing L x , and we assume a uniform distribution. . quietly summarize n . gen dx = n/r(sum) if age < 37 (6 missing values generated) . gen lx = 1 . replace lx = lx[_n-1] - dx[_n-1] if _n > 1 (30 real changes made, 5 to missing) . gen qx = dx/lx (6 missing values generated) . gen Lx = (lx + lx[_n+1])/2 (6 missing values generated) . format %8.6f dx qx lx Lx . list age dx qx lx Lx if age <= 37 +-------------------------------------------------+ | age dx qx lx Lx | |-------------------------------------------------| 1. | 12 0.000654 0.000654 1.000000 0.999673 | 2. | 13 0.000654 0.000655 0.999346 0.999018 | 3. | 14 0.002618 0.002621 0.998691 0.997382 | 4. | 15 0.008181 0.008213 0.996073 0.991983 | 5. | 16 0.025851 0.026168 0.987893 0.974967 | |-------------------------------------------------| 6. | 17 0.040903 0.042517 0.962042 0.941590 | 7. | 18 0.077552 0.084192 0.921139 0.882363 | 8. | 19 0.081152 0.096199 0.843586 0.803010 | 9. | 20 0.070353 0.092275 0.762435 0.727258 | (1 of 12) [2/11/2008 2:17:33 PM]

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Eco 572: Research methods in Demography 10. | 21 0.062500 0.090307 0.692081 0.660831 | |-------------------------------------------------| 11. | 22 0.068390 0.108628 0.629581 0.595386 | 12. | 23 0.064463 0.114869 0.561191 0.528959 | 13. | 24 0.050393 0.101449 0.496728 0.471531 | 14. | 25 0.051374 0.115103 0.446335 0.420648 | 15. | 26 0.040903 0.103563 0.394961 0.374509 | |-------------------------------------------------| 16. | 27 0.035013 0.098891 0.354058 0.336551 | 17. | 28 0.031414 0.098462 0.319045 0.303338 | 18. | 29 0.022906 0.079636 0.287631 0.276178 | 19. | 30 0.017016 0.064277 0.264725 0.256217 | 20. | 31 0.022579 0.091149 0.247709 0.236420 | |-------------------------------------------------| 21. | 32 0.018652 0.082849 0.225131 0.215805 | 22. | 33 0.013416 0.064976 0.206479 0.199771 | 23. | 34 0.013089 0.067797 0.193063 0.186518 | 24. | 35 0.012762 0.070909 0.179974 0.173593 | 25. | 36 0.010144 0.060665 0.167212 0.162140 | |-------------------------------------------------| 26. | 37 . . 0.157068 . | +-------------------------------------------------+ . quietly sum Lx . di 12 + r(sum) 25.715641 . drop if age > 37 (5 observations deleted) The average time lived in the single state by age 37.0 is 25.7. (b) To answer these questions we need l 20 , l 25 , and l 37 . I'll store these in scalars for clarity . scalar lx20 = lx[9] . scalar lx25 = lx[14] . scalar lx37 = lx[26] . di 1 - lx20 .23756546 . di 1 - lx25 .55366492 . di (lx20-lx25)/lx20 .41459227 . di (lx20-lx25)/(lx20-lx37) .52216214 (2 of 12) [2/11/2008 2:17:33 PM]
Eco 572: Research methods in Demography (c) We fit a Hernes model following the suggested procedure. . gen y = log(qx/(1-lx)) (2 missing values generated) . gen am = (age+0.5) . gen am15 = am - 15 . reg y am15 Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 24 -------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 22) = 196.19 Model | 26.4196017 1 26.4196017 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | 2.96252171 22 .134660078 R-squared = 0.8992 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.8946 Total | 29.3821234 23 1.27748363 Root MSE = .36696 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ y | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- am15 | -.1515703 .0108211 -14.01 0.000 -.1740119 -.1291288 _cons | .2402122 .131607 1.83 0.082 -.032724 .5131485 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ . scalar r = _b[am15] . gen z = logit(1-lx) (1 missing value generated) . gen x = exp(r*(age-15)) . reg z x Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 25 -------------+------------------------------ F( 1, 23) = 5546.13 Model | 169.889412 1 169.889412 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | .704536948 23 .030632041 R-squared = 0.9959 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9957 Total | 170.593949 24 7.10808121 Root MSE = .17502 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ z | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- x | -7.001133 .0940098 -74.47 0.000 -7.195607 -6.806658

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• Spring '06
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