Chap15_part1 - 144 Chapter 15: Time Series Forecasting and...

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Unformatted text preview: 144 Chapter 15: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers CHAPTER 15 15.1 Use the smoothed value for this year: 32.4 millions of constant 1995 dollars. 15.2 (a) Since you need data from four prior years to obtain the centered 9-year moving average for any given year and since the first recorded value is for 1955, the first centered moving average value you can calculate is for 1959. (b) You would lose four years for the period 1955-1958 since you do not have enough past values to compute a centered moving average. You will also lose the final four years of recorded time series since you do not have enough later values to compute a centered moving average. Therefore, you will “lose” a total of eight years in computing a series of 9-year moving averages. 15.3 (a) 2002 (0.20)(12.1) (0.80)(9.4) 9.94 E = + = (b) 2003 2003 2002 0.20 0.80 (0.20)(11.5) (0.8)(9.94) 10.25 E Y E = + = + = 15.4 (a),(b),(c),(e) 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Year Number of Employees (in thousands) Number of Employees MA(3) ES(W=.5) ES(W=.25) 145 Chapter 15: Time Series Forecasting and Index Numbers 15.4 (b),(c),(e) cont. Year Y i 3-Yr Moving Total 3-Yr MA E i ( W =0.50) E i ( W =0.25) 1983 1.45 1.45 1.45 1984 1.55 4.61 1.54 1.50 1.48 1985 1.61 4.76 1.59 1.56 1.51 1986 1.60 4.95 1.65 1.58 1.53 1987 1.74 5.26 1.75 1.66 1.58 1988 1.92 5.61 1.87 1.79 1.67 1989 1.95 5.91 1.97 1.87 1.74 1990 2.04 6.05 2.02 1.95 1.81 1991 2.06 5.90 1.97 2.01 1.88 1992 1.80 5.59 1.86 1.90 1.86 1993 1.73 5.30 1.77 1.82 1.82 1994 1.77 5.40 1.80 1.79 1.81 1995 1.90 5.49 1.83 1.85 1.83 1996 1.82 5.37 1.79 1.83 1.83 1997 1.65 5.20 1.73 1.74 1.79 1998 1.73 5.26 1.75 1.74 1.77 1999 1.88 5.61 1.87 1.81 1.80 2000 2.00 5.96 1.99 1.90 1.85 2001 2.08 5.96 1.99 1.99 1.91 2002 1.88 1.94 1.90 (d) 2003 2002 ˆ 1.94 Y E = = thousand employees (f) 2003 2002 ˆ 1.90 Y E = = thousand employees (g) The results are nearly the same. 15.5 (b), (c), (e) 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Year Sales (Millions of constant 1995 dollars) Sales MA(7) ES(W=.25) ES(W=.5) Solutions to End-of-Section and Chapter Review Problems 146 15.5 (b), (c), (e) cont. Year Y i 7-Yr Moving Total 7-Yr MA E i ( W =0.25) E i ( W =0.50) 1977 41.60 41.60 41.60 1978 48.00 43.20 44.80 1979 51.70 45.33 48.25 1980 55.90 370.40 52.91 47.97 52.08 1981 51.80 389.60 55.66 48.93 51.94 1982 57.00 397.90 56.84 50.94 54.47 1983 64.40 399.40 57.06 54.31 59.43 1984 60.80 396.80 56.69 55.93 60.12 1985 56.30 396.60 56.66 56.02 58.21 1986 53.20 388.60 55.51 55.32 55.70 1987 53.30 362.80 51.83 54.81 54.50 1988 51.60 339.30 48.47 54.01 53.05 1989 49.00 326.80 46.69 52.76 51.03 1990 38.60 315.30 45.04 49.22 44.81 1991 37.30 300.30 42.90 46.24 41.06 1992 43.80 285.10 40.73 45.63 42.43 1993 41.70 274.50 39.21 44.65 42.06 1994 38.30 278.50 39.79 43.06 40.18 1995 36.40 276.00 39.43 41.40 38.29 1996 38.40 260.60 37.23 40.65 38.35 1997 42.6042....
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This homework help was uploaded on 04/09/2008 for the course ENGR, STAT 320, 262, taught by Professor Harris during the Spring '08 term at Purdue University.

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Chap15_part1 - 144 Chapter 15: Time Series Forecasting and...

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