149388_Lazaro_Labrakis_Task_A_4075617_1213448513.docx

Methods such as winters exponential smoothing wes and

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Methods such as Winters Exponential Smoothing (WES) and decomposition were used to analyse and predict data. SOLVER in excel was used to obtain optimum values of our smoothing parameters for WES and mini tab were used to check autocorrelations to ensure I was finding the correct patterns. In my model, I used the multiplicative form as the time series was not linear in trend and seasonality. The estimates I got for my parameters were; A:2 Alpha 0.2398836 1 Beta 0.1676382 2 Gamma 0.4289813 6 The forecasts I received for my decomposition were; Mar-2017 78711.014 4 Apr-2017 78835.665 7 May-2017 78960.317 1 Jun-2017 79084.968 5 Jul-2017 79209.619 9 Aug-2017 79334.271 3 Sep-2017 79458.922 6 Oct-2017 79583.574 Nov-2017 79708.225 4 Dec-2017 79832.876 8 Jan-2018 79957.528 2
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Feb-2018 80082.179 5 Mar-2018 80206.830 9 Apr-2018 80331.482 3 May-2018 80456.133 7 Jun-2018 80580.785 Jul-2018 80705.436 4 Aug-2018 80830.087 8 Sep-2018 80954.739 2 Oct-2018 81079.390 6 Nov-2018 81204.041 9 Dec-2018 81328.693 3 Jan-2019 81453.344 7 Feb-2019 81577.996 1 Mar-2019 81702.647 5 Apr-2019 81827.298 8 May-2019 81951.950 2 Jun-2019 82076.601 6 Jul-2019 82201.253 C) The time series model I have selected is a WES multiplicative. I have chosen this model based on the low error criteria and nature of the data. The seasonal component was not additive and WES appeared the most accurate.
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45000 55000 65000 75000 85000 95000 105000 WES Multiplicative Car Sales Forecast Appendices A:1 Date Passenge r SUV Total Feb-2007 52628 14912 67540 Mar-2007 57757 17589 75346 Apr-2007 45109 14274 59383 May-2007 52727 16912 69639 Jun-2007 63768 18966 82734 Jul-2007 53589 15396 68985 Aug-2007 52748 17440 70188 Sep-2007 50197 15874 66071 Oct-2007 53336 17748 71084 Nov-2007 54195 17702 71897 Dec-2007 51722 17114 68836 Jan-2008 49295 17646 66941
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Feb-2008 53030 18277 71307 Mar-2008 53122 18425 71547 Apr-2008 47639 16654 64293 May-2008 51416 17279 68695 Jun-2008 61524 21388 82912 Jul-2008 51068 14842 65910 Aug-2008 46114 14233 60347 Sep-2008 48865 14200 63065 Oct-2008 45978 14357 60335 Nov-2008 43019 12736 55755 Dec-2008 45696 14422 60118 Jan-2009 41309 13435 54744 Feb-2009 42463 13699 56162 Mar-2009 43484 15022 58506 Apr-2009 36697 13092 49789 May-2009 42245 15562 57807 Jun-2009 55837 20459 76296 Jul-2009 46099 14752 60851 Aug-2009 44918 13972 58890 Sep-2009 47284 14443 61727 Oct-2009 46544 15741 62285 Nov-2009 47059 18360 65419 Dec-2009 46623 19616 66239 Jan-2010 43580 16900 60480 Feb-2010 47829 18073 65902 Mar-2010 53717 21643 75360 Apr-2010 47156 18067 65223 May-2010 50450 20065 70515 Jun-2010 60820 24597 85417 Jul-2010 47591 19032 66623 Aug-2010 46504 18515 65019 Sep-2010 48763 19684 68447 Oct-2010 45268 19348 64616 Nov-2010 49405 20806 70211 Dec-2010 51039 18555 69594 Jan-2011 43539 17032 60571 Feb-2011 45455 18916 64371 Mar-2011 50228 23066 73294 Apr-2011 41565 17054 58619 May-2011 42577 17121 59698 Jun-2011 54322 21518 75840 Jul-2011 45701 19383 65084 Aug-2011 48423 22111 70534 Sep-2011 47700 20778 68478 Oct-2011 47536 20400 67936 Nov-2011 46712 24182 70894 Dec-2011 45764 22367 68131 Jan-2012 42555 22123 64678 Feb-2012 46019 23448 69467 Mar-2012 51161 27363 78524 Apr-2012 40496 21841 62337 May-2012 48448 26863 75311 Jun-2012 57439 31617 89056 Jul-2012 43354 23845 67199
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Aug-2012 46612 26216 72828 Sep-2012 49210 25079 74289 Oct-2012 49291 25737 75028 Nov-2012 51652 26145 77797 Dec-2012 50618 25548 76166 Jan-2013 41957 26623 68580 Feb-2013 43338 26834 70172 Mar-2013 48664 29148 77812 Apr-2013 42844 24384 67228 May-2013 46774 29152 75926 Jun-2013 57636 34398 92034 Jul-2013 46318 25568 71886 Aug-2013 48060 27515 75575 Sep-2013 47149 26199 73348 Oct-2013 46939 26258 73197 Nov-2013 49089 28889 77978 Dec-2013 47686 28543 76229 Jan-2014 41626 25868 67494 Feb-2014 43651 25867 69518 Mar-2014 47079 30778 77857 Apr-2014 39027 25350 64377 May-2014 43819 30730 74549 Jun-2014 53844 36846 90690 Jul-2014 43464 28805 72269 Aug-2014 42658 27543 70201 Sep-2014 45194 30027 75221 Oct-2014 43126 28835 71961 Nov-2014 43063 31032 74095 Dec-2014 45051 30666 75717 Jan-2015 39799 27679 67478 Feb-2015 40775 32039 72814 Mar-2015 48185 35503 83688 Apr-2015 35015 29664 64679 May-2015 40592 32530 73122 Jun-2015 56386 42256 98642 Jul-2015 41420 32679 74099 Aug-2015 40673 32900 73573 Sep-2015 46084 36968 83052 Oct-2015 40856 34744 75600 Nov-2015 41726 36070 77796 Dec-2015 44172 35439 79611 Jan-2016 35214 33073 68287 Feb-2016 39558 36865 76423 Mar-2016 43652 38437 82089 Apr-2016 36671 31783 68454 May-2016 38222 36230 74452 Jun-2016 53832 46011 99843 Jul-2016 38033 33817 71850 Aug-2016 38945 36396 75341 Sep-2016 42076 39497 81573 Oct-2016 37817 36442 74259 Nov-2016 39852 37536 77388 Dec-2016 42385 34936 77321 Jan-2017 34920 34127 69047
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Feb-2017 34740 35497 70237 A:2 Date Car Sales L t T t S t Forecast Feb-2010 65902 0.955680 9 Mar-2010 75360 1.092836 5 Apr-2010 65223 0.945834 3 May-2010 70515 1.022576 5 Jun-2010 85417 1.238678 5 Jul-2010 66623 0.966136 5 Aug-2010 65019 0.942876 Sep-2010 68447 0.992587 3 Oct-2010 64616 0.937031 9 Nov-2010 70211 1.018168 Dec-2010 69594 1.009220 6 Jan-2011 60571 68958.1666 7 -138.479 0.878373 1 Feb-2011 64371 68468.6130 3 -197.333 0.949019 9 65769.6581 1 Mar-2011 73294 67982.5547 8 -245.734 1.086527 5 74609.3455 9 Apr-2011 58619 66354.8873 3 -477.399 0.919058 2 64067.8090 5 May-2011 59698 64078.9601 8 -778.901 0.983562 9 67364.7708 Jun-2011 75840 62802.6558 9 -862.285 1.225343 1 78408.4237 6 Jul-2011 65084 63241.7043 6 -644.132 0.99316 59842.8517 Aug-2011 70534 65526.4842 8 -153.134 1.000163 8 59021.7486 8 Sep-2011 68478 66240.7808 2 -7.71958 1.010255 6 64888.7567 Oct-2011 67936 67736.7015 8 244.348 0.965306 2 62062.4893 6 Nov-2011 70894 68376.3609 2 310.617 3 1.026169 5 69216.1306 4 Dec-2011 68131 68404.2885 6 263.227 7 1.003551 3 69320.3110 5 Jan-2012 64678 69858.8598 462.942 0.898734 60315.7005
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1 4 7 Feb-2012 69467 71011.9175 4 578.632 1 0.961556 6 66736.7878 2 Mar-2012 78524 71753.6842 8 605.979 7 1.089885 3 77785.0989 8 Apr-2012 62337 71272.3621 8 423.706 4 0.899999 7 66502.7438 6 May-2012 75311 72865.1439 619.688 1 1.005013 7 70517.5954 8 Jun-2012 89056 73291.3870 6 587.259 3 1.220946 9 90044.1309 1 Jul-2012 67199 72387.3290 9 337.257 5 0.965347 2 73373.3136 2 Aug-2012
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