To structure this analytical task the issues are pre sented separately as

To structure this analytical task the issues are pre

This preview shows page 61 - 63 out of 136 pages.

To structure this analytical task, the issues are pre- sented separately as important dimensions of low- carbon development that will be linked together in the process. Global low-carbon development involves innovation policy measures along at least four broad lines: i the energy supply side and energy access; ii energy demand, efficiency, and social legiti-macy; iii development and dissemination of low- carbon infrastructures to facilitate changes on the sup-ply and demand sides of energy; iv dismantling high-carbon energy systems. These are interdependent dimensions of building successful low-carbon LICS. The policy issues are addressed primarily in Chapter 5. 3.1 Energy production The transformation of energy systems toward low- carbon development entails innovation along at least four dimensions. The first concerns significant improvements of existing energy technologies. The LOW-CARBON INNOVATION AND DEVELOPMENT 53
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second concerns simultaneous improvement and large-scale diffusion of renewable energy technolo- gies to replace fossil energy and satisfy the growing global energy demand. Thirdly, we discuss the de- velopment of radically new sources of energy (for the longer term). This translates into investments in a range of diverse and experimental paths of re- search to increase the likelihood of radical techno- logical energy innovations. Fourth, we discuss im- provements in energy access in the South. 3.1.1 More efficient fossil energy technologies Despite the current strong emphasis on renewable energy technologies, fossil energy made up 78.2 percent of Global Final Energy Consumption in 2011 (RE 21, 2013). The International Energy Outlook 2013 (EIA, 2013a) estimates that global energy consumption will increase by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. The report further pro- jects that the global use of petroleum 10 will rise from 87 million barrels per day (MBD) in 2010, to 97 MBD in 2020, to 115 MBD in 2040. The growth will be concentrated in the transport sector and in the South, particularly China and India, while it will decrease in the North. The world’s use of coal is projected to grow at an annual average rate of 1.3 percent between 2010 and 2040, to peak in 2025. Consumption will be dominated by China (47 per- cent), the United States (14 percent), and India (9 percent). Consumption of natural gas is expected to increase by 64 percent in the period 2010-2040. Gas is an attractive option for many countries as it is less capital-intensive than most energy sources and has a much lower carbon intensity than oil and coal, which makes it more compatible with low- carbon policies (EIA, 2013a). The implication of the likely continued presence and economic im- portance of fossil energy in the coming decades is that strategies for low-carbon development need to include initiatives to limit their CO 2 emissions (see Section 1.4). Ignoring this would undermine con- structive low-carbon strategies. Three areas of fossil energy where innovation can contribute to a low-carbon development are: the efficiency of coal- fired power plants, carbon capture and storage technol-ogy, and the development of shale gas.
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