Helps explain why our self images are so remarkably

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Helps explain why our self-images are so remarkably stable self- verification - Remedies for overconfidence o Prompt feedback o Unpack a task and estimate the time required for each planning fallacy o Get people to think of one good reason why their judgments might be wrong confirmation bias Heuristics - A thinking strategy that enables quick, efficient judgments - Mental shortcuts - Form impressions, make judgments and invent explanations with remarkable ease - Enable us to live and make routine decisions with minimal effort - Some are adaptive, some makes error - Availability heuristics o A cognitive rule that judges the likelihood of things in terms of their availability in memory o If instances of something come readily to mind presume it to be commonplace o The more easily we recall something the more likely it seems o Social thinking People are slow to deduce particular instances from a general truth remarkably quick to infer general truth from a vivid instance o Explains why powerful anecdotes can nevertheless be more compelling than statistical information and why perceived risk is therefore often badly out of joint with real risks o Probability neglect (Sunstein, 2007) We worry about remote possibilities while ignoring higher probabilities o May lead to overweighting vivid instances - Representative heuristics o Tendency to presume, sometimes despite contrary odds, that someone or something belongs to a particular group if resembling (representing) a typical member
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o Judge something by intuitively comparing it to our mental representation of a category o The conjunction of two events cannot be more likely than either one of the events alone (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983) o May lead to discounting other important information Counterfactual thinking - Imagining alternative scenarios and outcomes that might have happed but didn’t - Occurs when we can easily picture an alternative outcome - Underlies our feelings of luck - The more significant the event the more intense the counterfactual thinking Illusory thinking - By-product of our mind’s strategies for simplifying complex information - Our search for order in random events - Tendency that can lead us down all sorts of wrong paths - Illusory correlation o Perception of a relationship where none exists o Perception of a stronger relationship than actually exists o When we expect to find significant relationships easily associate random events o People easily misperceive random events as confirming their beliefs o If we believe a correlation exists more likely to notice and recall confirming instances o We seldom notice or remember all the times unusual events do not coincide - Illusory of control o Perception of uncontrollable events as subject to one’s control or as more controllable than they are o Idea that chance events are subject to our influence o Gambling o Regression toward the average (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) Statistical tendency for extreme scores or extreme behavior to
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