45 senegal senegal is the only country of the region

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45 Senegal. Senegal is the only country of the region with only one case of EVD and no deaths. The impact on GDP growth in Senegal is only 0.6 percentage points in 2015 in the low scenario and 0.9 percentage points in the high scenario. The impacts are mostly due to the indirect impacts of the EVD on the country. 28 The country will lose 1.1 percent of the average GDP (US$145.2 million) over the 2014-17 period in the low Ebola scenario and 1.7 percent (US$221 million) in the high scenario (figure 16 and table 11). Mali. In Mali, six cases of EVD have been reported, all of which were fatal. In the low scenario, the macro-economic impact of the outbreak in terms of GDP growth is 0.3 percentage points between 2014 and 2017. Mali will lose on average of US$81.6 million per year. In the high Ebola scenario, the country will lose 0.6 percentage points of GDP on average, or US$164.6 million per year. Nigeria. With 20 reported cases and eight deaths, Nigeria is the most affected country outside the epicentre countries. The impact in terms of lost GDP growth due to the EVD is 0.1 percentage points per year in the low Ebola scenario, i.e. an average loss of US$1.4 billion (or 0.7% of the average GDP). In terms of GDP per capita, US$22 is lost between the baseline and the low Ebola scenario. In the high Ebola scenario, GDP growth is reduced by 0.2 percentage points, and the country will lose around US$1.6 billion. GDP per capita will be further reduced by US$48. Table 11: Senegal, Mali and Nigeria: Macro-economic impacts of the Ebola virus disease, 2004-2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 (US$ million) Senegal GDP change in Low EVD scenario -30.8 -106.5 -206.8 -236.7 GDP change in High EVD scenario -64.6 -177.9 -297.9 -347.0 Mali GDP change in Low EVD scenario -46.1 -75.1 -99.4 -105.6 GDP change in High EVD scenario -135.4 -239.1 -293.1 -317.1 Nigeria GDP change in Low EVD scenario -890.8 -1,898.6 -2,220.9 -1,167.1 GDP change in High EVD scenario -801.8 -1,903.3 -2,386.8 -1,567.4 Source: Authors’ estimation. 28 While this may be the case at the macro and formal levels, the situation for people who depend on informal cross- border trade may be different. It is important, therefore, to undertake some micro assessments on this issue to further examine the detailed impact on people whose livelihoods depend on cross-border trade. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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46 Figure 16: Senegal, Mali and Nigeria: Impact of the Ebola virus disease on GDP growth, 2014-2017 Source: Authors’ estimation. Senegal Mali Nigeria 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2 4 6 8 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 No Ebola Low Ebola High Ebola 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 0 2 4 6 8 10 SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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47 Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea Bissau, The Gambia, Niger and Togo. The remaining West African countries are EVD-free. The indirect impact of the disease is not negligible, however, because of the interconnections among the economies of this region. The impact on the GDP growth varies between 0.1 percentage points and 4 percentage points (figure 17).
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