registrations and often remains below the total global market due to regional

Registrations and often remains below the total

This preview shows page 17 - 20 out of 36 pages.

registrations and often remains below the total global market (due to regional scope) Economics Once a technology results in superior economics due to lower costs or additional revenues , the pace of adoption is exponential However, typically a certain level of volume is needed first, before cost parity to alternatives is reached 1 2 3 4 Illustrative ramp-up curves Penetration drivers What are the key drivers for new forms of mobility? 17 Time Penetration Premium customer demand Regulation requirements Superior economics 2 3 1 Technology readiness 4 Tipping point Change happens rapidly once favorable economics are achieved Strategy& | PwC Source: Strategy& analysis
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Technology Consumer Regulation Economics Viable car system capability and EE 1 architecture 3G coverage must be >95% Share of people paying extra for Premium services Experience (e.g. AR windshield) Timing of requirements such as: Mandatory eCall Geo-data privacy Superior economics Cheaper OTA vs. OBDII 2 updates Low usage-based fees vs. fix rates Electric powertrain performance Charging network availability [>80% coverage in urban areas] Consumer preference for Acceleration Sustainability Operating cost Emission target levels [From 95g CO 2 /km down to 60g CO2/km] Cities with ICE bans/restrictions Superior total cost of ownership (TCO) of BEV vs. ICE [at mid-range for volume segment] Coverage of a vehicle’s operating driving domain [>75% at 50km/h] 4G/5G network coverage Share of users paying extra for: “Having it first” Letting tech do the driving Enforced L2 safety features e.g. front camera [AV people movers/ robo-taxis approved in restricted areas] “5th screen” revenues Superior TCO & lower price [in taxi/hailing mode] Smartphone penetration [>70% of population] International/ intermodal roaming Share of people willing to give up own car in urban areas [>40%] Car pool occupancy requirements [in >50 large cities] Insurance/liability requirements Superior cost vs. own vehicle [>20% cheaper] Transformation will happen at varying speeds globally Key considerations to anticipate tipping point of exponential technology adoption 18 Expected tipping points Automated Electric Connected Shared 1 2 3 4 earlier 2030 later 1) EE = electric/ electronics 2) OTA = Over the Air; OBDII = On board diagnosis interface Source: expert interviews, PwC AutoFacts®, Strategy& analysis [Assumed moment of truth / penetration before reaching tipping point of transformation] Strategy& | PwC
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Connected services will be worth $81bn in US/EU/CN by 2030 Connected services market potential (vehicle-centric and 5th screen) Note: based on Strategy& 2030 scenario GMV = Gross Merchant Value Source: expert interviews, PwC AutoFacts®, Strategy& analysis 19 Estimated market size development, EU (in USD billions) Estimated market size development, China (in USD billions) 2018 1.0 2.6 12.2 0.0 0.1 4.7 2020 2025 22.1 2.2 2030 2.6 4.9 13.2 24.4 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.9 15.9 2018 2.5 2020 8.2 2025 14.0 1.9 2030 1.2 2.6 9.1 0.6 1.7 11.1 0.0 2018 1.0 0.1 2020 2025 37.2 3.7 2030 0.6 1.7 12.1 41.0 Revenues from vehicle-centric connected services (e.g. predictive navigation) are driven by higher connected car penetration and corresponding demand. However,
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  • Fall '20
  • Automobile, Electric vehicle

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