The impact is the most probable scenario for global nuclear war Dibb 1 Paul

The impact is the most probable scenario for global

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The impact is the most probable scenario for global nuclear war Dibb 1 . ( Paul, Prof – Australian National University, Strategic Trends: Asia at a Crossroads, Naval War College Review, Winter, ) The areas of maximum danger and instability in the world today are in Asia, followed by the Middle East and parts of the former Soviet Union. The strategic situation in Asia is more uncertain and potentially threatening than anywhere in Europe. Unlike in Europe , it is possible to envisage war in Asia involving the major powers : remnants of Cold War ideological confrontation still exist across the Taiwan Straits and on the Korean Peninsula; India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles, and these two countries are more confrontational than at any time since the early 1970s; in Southeast Asia, Indonesia —which is the world’s fourth-largest country— faces a highly uncertain future that could lead to its breakup. The Asia-Pacific region spends more on defense (about $150 billion a year) than any other part of the world except the United States and Nato Europe. China and Japan are amongst the top four or five global military spenders. Asia also has more nuclear powers than any other region of the world . Asia’s security is at a crossroads: the region could go in the direction of peace and cooperation, or it could slide into confrontation and military conflict. There are positive tendencies, including the resurgence of economic growth and the spread of democracy, which would encourage an optimistic view. But there are a number of negative tendencies that must be of serious concern. There are deep-seated historical, territorial, ideological, and religious differences in Asia. Also, the region has no history of successful multilateral security cooperation or arms control. Such multilateral institutions as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the ASEAN Regional Forum have shown themselves to be ineffective when confronted with major crises. Their ev doesn’t assume the brink – NOW IS KEY -- U.S. ENVOYS ARE ATTEMPTING TO REPAIR RELATIONS WITH CHINA – FURTHER PROTECTIONIST PRESSURE WILL BE THE LAST STRAW. WINES 10 . [3-2 -- Michael, China bureau chief @ NYT “American envoys in Beijing to mend relations” NYT] Two senior U nited S tates officials arrived in Beijing on Tuesday for meetings aimed at smoothing relations with China after months of economic and political disputes . The officials , Deputy Secretary of State James B. Steinberg and Jeffrey A. Bader, the senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council, are to hold high-level discussions with Chinese officials “about the broad U.S.-China relationship , where we are at this stage,” the State Department spokesman, Philip J. Crowley, said Monday. We’ve gone through a bit of a bumpy path here, ” he said, “and I think there’s an interest both within the U nited S tates and China to get back to business as usual as quickly as possible .” The nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea are among the issues that will be discussed, Mr. Crowley said. Both China and the United States
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