Two of the 2004 companies represent 386000 claims mainly for site built homes

Two of the 2004 companies represent 386000 claims

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Two of the 2004 companies represent 386,000 claims, mainly for site-built homes. They are chosen here to illustrate some of the issues facing modelers regarding claim data. Their claims are divided between hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne for central Florida, and hurricane Ivan for the Panhandle. The distribution of the claim data for masonry and timber frame homes is given in Table 2. It shows that the comparisons for masonry homes between data and model will be statistically more significant for Charley and Frances, while frame comparisons will be more significant for Ivan. In addition, the variation of damage with wind speed, for the different hurricanes and the dif- ferent companies was investigated. The mean damages vs. wind speed (i.e. empirical vulnerabil- ities), from the claim files, are shown in Figure 2, for masonry homes of the same age category. Ideally, if the data were consistent, all the trend lines should be reasonably close to each other. However, the figure shows a large disparity between companies and hurricanes that might re- flect a systematic bias or flaws in the data. For example, hurricane Jeanne was a second hit hur- ricane, and therefore, most of the damage that could have been reported had already been done by Frances, resulting in fewer claims for Jeanne. Consequently, Jeanne data was eliminated from the validation studies. Similarly the data from Ivan was also eliminated due to the impossi- bility to separate damage due to storm surge from damage due to wind. These issues illustrate the difficulty faced by modelers in obtaining reliable data for validation studies. Table 2 – Companies 1 and 2: Claim Numbers Com- bined Com- pany Hurri- cane Construc- tion Claim Num- bers Company 1 Charley Masonry 33202 Company 1 Charley Frame 5909 Company 1 Frances Masonry 24285 Company 1 Frances Frame 9352 Company 1 Ivan Masonry 7616 Company 1 Ivan Frame 15723 Company 2 Charley Masonry 48691 Company 2 Charley Frame 7981 Company 2 Frances Masonry 35036 Company 2 Frances Frame 13015 Company 2 Ivan Masonry 2875 Company 2 Ivan Frame 16466 Figure 2. Masonry homes vulnerabilities VALIDATION STUDIES The validation consisted of a series of comparisons between the actual claim data and the FPHLPM results. Scenario analyses were run with the FPHLPM for Charley, Frances, and An- drew, using the portfolios provided by the corresponding insurance companies. In each case, the
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total aggregated losses for structure, contents, appurtenant, and ALE were computed and com- pared to the aggregated actual claim losses. See Figure 3, where the dark squares represent Charley’s scenarios and the empty diamonds represent Frances’ scenarios. A general trend exists: the model underestimates structure, appurtenant, and ALE losses, while it overestimates contents loss. The only exception, not shown in the figure, is Andrew, for which the structure losses are overestimated by a factor of 1.5 ($ 3 billions vs. $ 2 billions). For the 2004 data, it appears that even for large amount of structure loss, the insurance companies re- port relatively small amounts of contents loss.
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