# 9 understand the idea of conditional probability find

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9. Understand the idea of conditional probability. Find conditional probabilities for individuals chosen at random from a table of counts of possible outcomes. 10. Use the general multiplication rule to find the joint probability P (A B) from P (A) and the conditional probability P (B | A). 11. Construct tree diagrams to organize the use of the multiplication and addition rules to solve problems with several stages.

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Chapter 6: Probability and Simulation: The Study of Randomness Section 6.I: Introduction to Probability and Simulation Knowledge Objectives: Students will: List three methods that can be used to calculate or estimate the chances of an event occurring. Vocabulary: Probability model – calculates the theoretical probability for a set of circumstances Probability – describes the pattern of chance outcomes Key Concepts: 1. Calculating relative frequencies using observed data 2. Theoretical Probability Model 3. Simulation Probability Project: 1. During class you need to” roll your dice” using your calculator as many times as possible. After each 500 trials group clear the data and record you results on a tally sheet. Get 5000 trials 2. After class you need to figure out the relative frequency (percentages) of each of your totals and record them on your tally sheet. This represents the enumerated method for finding probabilities (observed values). 3. After class you will have to use the classical method to determine the set of all possible solutions (total number on the dice) and their associated probabilities (Theoretical Probability Model). 4. After class you will need to create a bar chart comparing the relative frequency with the classical probabilities. 5. Finally, use Powerpoint to create the following charts: a) A title chart describing your experiment b) A chart of your tally sheet with the number of occurrences and the relative frequencies on it c) A chart of the solution set and the classical probabilities associated with each solution d) A chart that has the graph that you created that 6. Staple your charts together and turn in for grade on Friday 15 October
Chapter 6: Probability and Simulation: The Study of Randomness Section 6.1: Simulation Knowledge Objectives: Students will: Define simulation . List the five steps involved in a simulation. Explain what is meant by independent trials. Construction Objectives: Students will be able to: Use a table of random digits to carry out a simulation. Given a probability problem, conduct a simulation in order to estimate the probability desired. Use a calculator or a computer to conduct a simulation of a probability problem. Vocabulary: Simulation – imitation of chance behavior, based on a model that accurately reflects the phenomenon under consideration Trials – many repetitions of a simulation or experiments Independent – one repetition does not affect the outcome of another Key Concepts: Steps of Simulation 1. State the problem or describe the random phenomenon 2. State the assumptions 3. Assign digits to represent outcomes 4.

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