Completely reliable that is known to be true and that

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completely reliable, that is, known to be true; and that (2) all inferences involved are logically flawless. (See Young 1988.p.34). The young man’s conclusion fails to meet either test. He does not know yet whether the statement in the newspaper is true; newspaper statements are often false. Furthermore, his inference is faulty: even though registration for the draft might be required, it does not follow that anyone is presently being drafted. The young man’s inference is therefore not reliable at all; he has jumped to a conclusion. Although a completely reliable conclusion that he was about to be drafted would be difficult, if not impossible, to reach- even an order to report for induction could possibly be in error- he should have investigated the situation more fully before acting so; he could consider all the relevant evidence. Throughout human history we have been notoriously careless in testing our conclusions. Consequently, we have made countless blunders and accumulated a vast amount of misinformation that has led to more blunders. Ideally, all conclusions should be tested for reliability. And if you test some but not others, you may be protecting your cherished beliefs by testing only the tentative conclusions that d isp lease you. In so doing, you defeat the purpose of critical thinking. Phase five, Evaluation and Decision. The objective of this phase is to determine whether you have found any workable solutions to your problem and, if so, to select the best of them. Thus this phase involves assessing the reliability of solutions based on the testing done in phase four. When you begin testing tentative conclusions by appropriating methods, you will soon discover that completely reliable conclusions are rare. Usually there will be weakness either in the evidence or in the inferences or in both. In practical matters, the best we can hope for is high degree reliability. If we delayed making a decision until we reached absolute reliability, we would dwell forever in the limbo of decision by indecision.
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The minimum degree of reliability you should have before accepting or acting on a conclusion varies with the circumstances. A juror in a murder case who believes that convicting an innocent defendant of murder would be a tragic error should demand the high degree of reliability known as true beyond reasonable doubt. A person trying to decide which is the best of two boxes of cereal can afford to settle for a much lower degree of reliability since relatively little is at stake. When evaluation of your tentative conclusions shows that none of them is sufficiently reliable, you should repeat the whole circle. Each time we repeat the circle we are likely to discover new and more promising tentative conclusions. I recommend that the process should be repeated until you have a conclusion with a degree of reliability sufficient for your purpose. One may ask here, how do we know when the degree of reliability is sufficient for our purpose? The answer is that the decision so arrived at must be all lasting decision and
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