Ecb working paper series no 2381 march 2020 52 figure

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ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 52
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Figure 16: Mexico (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 53
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Figure 17: Russia (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 54
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Figure 18: India (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 55
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Figure 19: China (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 56
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Figure 20: South Africa (a) Probability of low economic activity regime: Constant mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 (b) Probability of low economic activity regime: Time-varying mean model 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 Note: The blue solid line (right axis) plots the monthly probability of low real activity regime, Pr ( s t = 1), for the corresponding model, and the grey bars (left axis) denote the real GDP quarterly growth. ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 57
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Figure 21: Time-varying component of mean growth during recessions (a) U.S. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 × 10 -3 (b) Euro Area 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 × 10 -3 (c) United Kingdom 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -15 -10 -5 0 5 × 10 -4 (d) Canada 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 × 10 -3 (e) Japan 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 × 10 -3 (f) Australia 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 × 10 -4 (g) Brazil 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 × 10 -4 (h) Mexico 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 × 10 -3 (i) Russia 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 -4.5 -4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 × 10 -3 (j) India 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 × 10 -4 (k) China 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 -15 -10 -5 0 5 × 10 -4 (l) South Africa 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
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