The supply of labour has led to serious concerns with

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the supply of labour, has led to serious concerns with respect to food production. Although the results of the estimation show that the impact of the disease on food security is lower in Sierra Leone and Guinea, these two countries will not be spared from the worsening of food insecurity. In Sierra Leone , the epidemic will result in increased food insecurity, with the prevalence of undernourishment rising with the prevalence of infection. Assuming a moderate level of infection, the prevalence of undernourishment will increase by 1.30 percent in 2014 compared to the trend observed between 1992 and 2012; in the high scenario, this increase is by 1.39 percent. These rates will be 4.03 percent and 4.12 percent higher, for low and high scenarios, respectively, in 2016. Guinea will be less affected than Liberia and Sierra Leone. The increase in the prevalence of undernourishment due to the EVD will be 0.49 percent in the low scenario and 0.57 percent in the high scenario in 2014, compared to the trend observed in recent years. These changes in food insecurity could reach 1.50 percent and Figure 32: Impact of the Ebola virus disease on food security in the main epicentre countries Source: Authors’ estimation. Guinea Liberia Sierra Leone Trend Low EVD High EVD 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 12.20 12.75 13.30 13.85 14.40 29 30.25 31.5 32.75 34 28 29.5 31 32.5 34 Undernourishment rate (%) Undernourishment rate (%) Undernourishment rate (%) SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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65 Figure 33: Impact of the Ebola virus disease on food security in Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana 1.72 percent, in 2016. However, despite the limited impact on the food insecurity indicator measured at the national level, the most affected regions may experience more difficulties in access to food products of sufficient quality and quantities. Indeed, Guinée Forestière, where the epidemic has been mostly concentrated, experienced a greater disruption of agricultural production and agricultural marketing systems. As a result, employment and income could be more greatly reduced. Furthermore, Moyenne-Guinée, which is a fruit, vegetable and potato production area, has faced the closure of its border with Senegal in particular. Indeed, much of the production of this part of the country is traditionally exported to Senegal; the border closure has reduced the export opportunities. Source: Authors’ estimation. Benin Burkina Faso Côte d’Ivoire Ghana 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 26 27 28 29 30 Undernourishment rate (%) Undernourishment rate (%) Trend Low EVD High EVD 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2016 21.00 22.25 23.50 24.75 26.00 -1.0 0 2.0 3.5 5.0 Undernourishment rate (%) Undernourishment rate (%) SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
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66 When analysing the other West African countries, it emerges that the magnitude of the impact of the epidemic on food security will be severe in the bordering countries of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Being the most vulnerable economically among these countries, Guinea Bissau will be most affected by food insecurity. Indeed, the level of undernourishment is estimated to have increased by 3.64 to 3.68 percent in 2014, compared to the
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