733 155 4081 1597927 0545 Weeks 156 758 156 77638033 18

733 155 4081 1597927 0545 weeks 156 758 156 77638033

This preview shows page 34 - 46 out of 69 pages.

733 155 772.97408 -40 39.974081 1597.927 05.45% Weeks 156 758 156 776.38033 -18 18.38033274 337.8366 02.42% Weeks 157 775 157 779.78658 -5 4.786584481 22.91139 00.62% Weeks 158 813 158 783.19284 30 29.80716378 888.467 03.67% Weeks 159 860 159 786.59909 73 73.40091204 5387.694 08.53% Weeks 160 930 160 790.00534 140 139.9946603 19598.5 15.05% Weeks 161 921 161 793.41159 128 127.5884086 16278.8 13.85% Weeks 162 888 162 796.81784 91 91.18215682 8314.186 10.27% Weeks 163 841 163 800.22409 41 40.77590508 1662.674 04.85% Weeks 164 854 164 803.63035 50 50.36965334 2537.102 05.90% Weeks 165 831 165 807.0366 24 23.9634016 574.2446 02.88% Weeks 166 831 166 810.44285 21 20.55714986 422.5964 02.47% Weeks 167 851 167 813.8491 37 37.15089812 1380.189 04.37% Weeks 168 891 168 817.25535 74 73.74464638 5438.273 08.28% Total 0 7201.614884 448384.2 1491.46% Intercept 245.0051 Average 0 42.86675526 2668.954 08.88% Slope 3.406252 Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE 51.9722 Future period 820.6616 169 824.0679 170 Correlation 0.954415 827.4741 171 Coefficient of determination 0.910908 830.8804 172 834.2866 173
Image of page 34
837.6929 174 841.0991 175 844.5054 176 847.9116 177 851.3179 178 854.7241 179 858.1304 180 861.5366 181 864.9429 182 868.3491 183 871.7554 184 875.1616 185 878.5679 186 881.9741 187 885.3804 188 888.7866 189 892.1929 190 895.5991 191 899.0054 192 902.4116 193 905.8179 194 909.2242 195 912.6304 196 916.0367 197 919.4429 198 922.8492 199 926.2554 200 929.6617 201 933.0679 202 936.4742 203 939.8804 204 943.2867 205 946.6929 206 950.0992 207 953.5054 208 956.9117 209 960.3179 210 963.7242 211 967.1304 212 970.5367 213 973.9429 214 977.3492 215 980.7554 216 984.1617 217 987.5679 218 990.9742 219
Image of page 35
994.3804 220
Image of page 36
Trend projection method is a classical method of business forecasting. This method is essentially concerned with the study of movement of variable through time. The use of this method requires a long and reliable time series data. Trend is the gradual upward or downward movement of the data over time. Changes in income, population, age distribution, or cultural views may account for movement in a trend. According to the data, the Forecast is prediciting in increase of sales.
Image of page 37
Image of page 38
Image of page 39
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 Regression Column B Linear (Column B)
Image of page 40
Image of page 41
Image of page 42
Forecasting Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing Alpha Beta Data Forecasts and Error Analysis Period Demand Error Absolute Squared Week 1 287 287 287 0 0 0 Week 2 311 287 0 287 24 24 576 Week 3 351 287 0 287 64 64 4096 Week 4 374 287 0 287 87 87 7569 Week 5 340 287 0 287 53 53 2809 Week 6 305 287 0 287 18 18 324 Week 7 279 287 0 287 -8 8 64 Week 8 316 287 0 287 29 29 841 Week 9 326 287 0 287 39 39 1521 Week 10 343 287 0 287 56 56 3136 Week 11 354 287 0 287 67 67 4489 Week 12 391 287 0 287 104 104 10816 Week 13 344 287 0 287 57 57 3249 Week 14 286 287 0 287 -1 1 1 Week 15 229 287 0 287 -58 58 3364 Week 16 252 287 0 287 -35 35 1225 Week 17 293 287 0 287 6 6 36 Week 18 305 287 0 287 18 18 324 Week 19 320 287 0 287 33 33 1089 Week 20 326 287 0 287 39 39 1521 Week 21 360 287 0 287 73 73 5329 Week 22 330 287 0 287 43 43 1849 Week 23 293 287 0 287 6 6 36 Week 24 259 287 0 287 -28 28 784 Week 25 287 287 0 287 0 0 0 Week 26 288 287 0 287 1 1 1 Week 27 302 287 0 287 15 15 225 Week 28 316 287 0 287 29 29 841 Week 29 364 287 0 287 77 77 5929 Week 30 393 287 0 287 106 106 11236 Week 31 361 287 0 287 74 74 5476 Week 32 322 287 0 287 35 35 1225 Week 33 291 287 0 287 4 4 16 Week 34 323 287 0 287 36 36 1296 Week 35 327 287 0 287 40 40 1600 Smoothed Forecast, Ft Smoothed Trend, Tt Forecast Including Trend, FITt
Image of page 43
Week 36 341 287 0 287 54 54 2916 Week 37 352 287 0 287 65 65 4225 Week 38 397 287 0 287 110 110 12100 Week 39 377 287 0 287 90 90 8100 Week 40 342 287 0 287 55 55 3025 Week 41 305 287 0 287 18 18 324 Week 42 325 287 0 287 38 38 1444 Week 43 362 287 0 287 75 75 5625 Week 44 369 287 0 287 82 82 6724 Week 45 384 287 0 287 97 97 9409 Week 46 393 287 0 287 106 106 11236 Week 47 434 287 0 287 147 147 21609 Week 48 409 287 0 287 122 122 14884 Week 49 373 287 0 287 86 86 7396 Week 50 337 287 0 287 50 50 2500 Week 51 360 287 0 287 73 73 5329 Week 52 403 287 0 287 116 116 13456 Week 53 437 287 0 287 150 150 22500 Week 54 475 287 0 287 188 188 35344 Week 55 505 287 0 287 218 218 47524 Week 56 542 287 0 287 255 255 65025 Week 57 512 287 0 287 225 225 50625 Week 58 472 287 0 287 185 185 34225 Week 59 436 287 0 287 149 149 22201 Week 60 464 287 0 287 177 177 31329 Week 61 468 287 0 287 181 181 32761 Week 62 485 287 0 287 198 198 39204 Week 63 505 287 0 287 218 218 47524 Week 64 557 287 0 287 270 270 72900 Week 65 516 287 0 287 229 229 52441 Week 66 458 287 0 287 171 171 29241 Week 67 393 287 0 287 106 106 11236 Week 68 409 287 0 287 122 122 14884 Week 69 442 287 0 287 155 155 24025 Week 70 446 287 0 287 159 159 25281 Week 71 463 287 0 287 176 176 30976 Week 72 477 287 0 287 190 190 36100 Week 73 526 287 0 287 239 239 57121 Week 74 504 287 0 287 217 217 47089 Week 75 467 287 0 287 180 180 32400 Week 76 425 287 0 287 138 138 19044 Week 77 445 287 0 287 158 158 24964 Week 78 434 287 0 287 147 147 21609 Week 79 443 287 0 287 156 156 24336 Week 80 460 287 0 287 173 173 29929 Week 81 522 287 0 287 235 235 55225
Image of page 44
Week 82 567 287 0 287 280 280 78400 Week 83 540 287 0 287 253 253 64009 Week 84 500 287 0 287 213 213 45369 Week 85 459 287 0 287 172 172 29584 Week 86 483 287 0 287 196 196 38416 Week 87 476 287 0 287 189 189 35721 Week 88 486 287 0 287 199 199 39601 Week 89 502 287 0 287 215 215 46225 Week 90 562 287 0 287 275
Image of page 45
Image of page 46

You've reached the end of your free preview.

Want to read all 69 pages?

  • Spring '16
  • Business, 1969, 1968, 1979, 1973

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture