# Elasticity with the results of the evd macro economic

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elasticity with the results of the EVD macro-economic impact model, we can estimate the poverty effect of the epidemic. Combining this result with that of the macro-economic model, we determine the path of food security indicators for each of the scenarios of evolution of the epidemic. Thus, we can calculate the difference between the path of food security indicators with and without Ebola. For this purpose, we start from the assumption that without Ebola, food security indicators will follow the pre-outbreak trend. Next, we determine the relationship between the food security indicators and the growth rate of GDP per capita using an econometric model. dP SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
87 Following Stavytsky and Prokopenko (2014), a panel data model is used to estimate the relationship between food security and GDP per capita. A panel data regression method gives the possibility to get robust estimates and to indicate some special features for each country. The developed fixed-effect panel data model takes the following general form: Y it = β 1 X it + α i + μ it (7) Where: α i ( i = 1… n ) is the unknown intercept for each country i ( n entity-specific intercepts); Y it is the dependent variable (DV) where i = entity and t = time; X it represents one independent variable (IV); β 1 is the coefficient for that X; μ it is the error term The estimated model is as follows: Lfpundn it = β 0 + β 1 Lgdper it + β 2 Llaborilo it + β 2 trade ratio openess it + ∑ γ i E i + μ it (8) Where: Lfpundn it represents the log of the undernourishment rate in country i at time t ; Lgdper it is the log of GDP per capita in country i at time t ; trade_openess_ratio it is the trade openness ratio in country i at time t ; E i is the country i. Since they are binary (dummies), n-1 countries are included in the model. In this case, we have 14 countries. γ i is the coefficient for the binary repressors (countries). The slope coefficient on an IV is the same from one entity to the next. The entity-specific intercepts in [eq.7] and the binary regressors in [eq.8] have the same source: the unobserved variable Zi that varies across countries but not over time. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EBOLA VIRUS DISEASE IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
88 Annex 4. Variables and data The main dependent variable is the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The main explanatory variables used to estimate the GDP per capita function are: the labour force, which is the percentage of the total population that is working; the savings rate, which is measured by the ratio of the public investment to GDP; human capital accumulation, which is measured by the rate of secondary education enrolment; the size of the economy, which is measured by the one-period lag level of per capita GDP; the openness of the country.

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