2819681_1_csm-80009-individual-assignment--2018---2-.pdf

Those scenarios for each component must add up to 100

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those scenarios for each component must add up to 100% (as they are mutually exclusive scenarios which cannot occur together). Specific details are in the following table. Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic Excavation and ground water infiltration Risks Scenario Outcome Probability No possibility of groundwater table raise and ground water infiltration $10,000 0.15 Raise of groundwater table in rainy season $80,000 0.5 Serious groundwater infiltration requiring dewatering, etc. $100,000 0.35 Geotechnical risks of substructure Scenario Outcome Probability No rock found $200,000 0.25 Boulders found $650,000 0.4 Solid rock found $900,000 0.35 Weather related risks of superstructure construction Scenario Outcome Probability Does not rain for whole contract $100,000 0.25 Rains for 15 days $200,000 0.45 Rains for 45 days $400,000 0.3 Interior and Exterior finishes Scenario Outcome Probability No rework and changes $100,000 0.3 Some rework and changes $150,000 0.3 Several rework and changes $200,000 0.4 Labour union problems Scenario Outcome Probability No problems during this project $5,000 0.33 Some minor problems $50,000 0.34 Few major problems during this project $250,000 Inflation Scenario Outcome Probability Reserve Bank keeps rates on hold 4.5% 0.25 Economy grows & Reserve Bank increases by one base point 6.5% 0.55 Economy booms & Reserve Bank increases 2 points 8% 0.2 Prepare a risk management report based on the expected monetary value (EMV) in this project
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