Be careful not to leap to causal explanations for

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Be careful not to leap to causal explanations for such effects 1 Illusionary Trends Horace Se Book: Triumph of Mediocrity in business Statistical analysis --business that had great profits tend to have lower profits the next year Concluded firms were heading towards mediocracy Wrong results Reanalyzed data cause he did not find any trend-- saw a pattern that wasn’t their Firms productivity differs Be careful of identifying trends that do not exist 1 Career and Performance Evaluation Performance evaluation are prone to regression trends that might not exist
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  • Winter '13
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  • Regression Analysis, Francis Galton, Regression toward the mean, discoveries and Invention

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