The book analyzed 12 different scenarios which all

This preview shows page 12 - 13 out of 41 pages.

The book analyzed 12 different scenarios, which all showed that, should then-current economic growth and population trends continue, within 100 years the world’s natural resources would be either almost exhausted or too expensive to buy Came to two key conclusions: o If current rate of resource depletion continues, humanity will reach the limit to growth in the next 100 years o Cutbacks in consuming to achieve a state of global equilibrium could change the negative outlook In the 2004 update, they stress that humanity is coming seriously close to global overshoot . The new book asserts that in the next 70 years or so, the system-collapse will no longer be preventable, as environmental decline is almost inevitable. The authors conclude that it is too late for sustainable development. Now we must choose between unrestrained collapse and what we might call harm reduction – a conscious reduction (to supportable levels) of the energy and materials we consume. In this updated version, World3 is used to provide 10 new scenarios, in which the gap between the rich and poor expands, the industrial production in developed nations declines, and essential non-renewable resources become harder to obtain and more expensive to use Why Demography? Demographers ask a variety of important questions about a population. o Size, density, composition, health status, how long do they stay Changes in the population lead to, or can result from, changes in other societal processes Population processes and social processes are closely intertwined. Rapid population shifts can change societies Population size: a large population puts more pressure on the natural environment, but it is more likely to innovate, but they need systematic production of food Conversely, industrial, mainly post-agricultural, societies don’t really need large populations to the same degree. Population quality is more important than population quantity, so the growth rate typically slows down dramatically until populations actually start to shrink As humanity grew in number, people changed from transient hunter-gatherers, to settled agriculturalists, then to urban industrialists and post-industrialists Third, large, dense populations tend to invent new social and economic roles, or as Durkheim said, they divide the labour of society in specialized ways. Productive tasks are broken into smaller, detailed tasks that require training. Increasingly, social rules are distinguished not only by age and sex but also by characteristics associated with skill, aptitude, and interest The health and longevity of a population also affect how a society works. A healthy, long-lived population is likely to contain a higher level of human capital.

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture

  • Left Quote Icon

    Student Picture