CA2320EN.pdf

More than compensate for falling sales by brazil and

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more than compensate for falling sales by Brazil and the Russian Federation, on the demand side the EU is expected to remain the largest destination for maize in 2018/19. This season’s tightening global supplies and strong import demand have pushed up international prices of the major coarse grains above their levels in the corresponding period last year. For additional analyses and updates, see: FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief at Crop Prospects and Food Situation at AMIS Market Monitor at COARSE GRAINS Contact: [email protected] [email protected] (Production) COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION, UTILIZATION AND STOCKS 100 170 240 310 380 900 1030 1160 1290 1420 18/19 16/17 14/15 12/13 10/11 08/09 million tonnes million tonnes f’cast Stocks (right axis) Production (left axis) Utilization (left axis) 1 Trade refers to exports based on a common July/June marketing season. 2 May not equal the difference between supply (defined as production plus opening stocks) and utilization due to differences in indivdual countries’ marketing years 3 Major exporters include Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, EU, Russian Fed., Ukraine and the United States. 2016/17 2017/18 estim. 2018/19 f’cast Change: 2018/19 over 2017/18 July Nov million tonnes % WORLD BALANCE Production 1 355.3 1 391.3 1 338.7 1 360.3 -2.2 Trade 1 180.7 195.8 189.6 195.3 -0.2 Total utilization 1 339.0 1 372.9 1 390.8 1 403.3 2.2 Food 205.0 209.0 210.1 212.6 1.7 Feed 756.1 767.6 782.3 788.0 2.7 Other uses 377.9 396.3 398.4 402.7 1.6 Ending stocks 2 356.0 366.1 311.0 321.0 -12.3 SUPPLY AND DEMAND INDICATORS Per caput food consumption: World (kg/yr) 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.9 0.7 LIFDC (kg/yr) 38.4 38.7 37.9 38.8 0.3 World stocks-to-use ratio (%) 25.9 26.1 21.7 22.3 Major exporters stocks-to-disappear- ance ratio 3 (%) 14.1 15.1 11.3 12.5 FAO COARSE GRAIN PRICE INDEX (2002-2004=100) 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Oct Change* % 151 146 156 5.9 WORLD COARSE GRAIN MARKET AT A GLANCE * Jan-Oct 2018 over Jan-Oct 2017, in percent
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Markets at a glance 5 FOOD OUTLOOK NOVEMBER 2018 World rice production is forecast to expand by 1.3 percent in 2018 to reach a new record high. India is predicted to spearhead this growth, due to generally adequate monsoon rains and higher minimum support prices. Sizeable expansions are also expected in Bangladesh, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, the United States, Tanzania and Viet Nam. By contrast, policy-driven output contractions are anticipated in China and Egypt, while falling returns are expected to depress production across much of Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania. World rice utilization is forecast to increase by 1.1 percent in 2018/19, sustained by an expected rise in rice use for food consumption, while feed and industrial uses could decline. Global stocks are forecast to grow by 2.6 percent by the close of 2018/19 marketing seasons, more than was previously anticipated. Among the major exporters, principally India and the US are likely to end their seasons with larger inventories. Among importers, carryovers could rise mostly in China and to a lesser extent in Indonesia and the Philippines. These tendencies would lift the global stock-to-use ratio to 34.2 percent, its highest level
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