2010 2015 15 10 5 5 10 4note the figure plots for

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2010 2015 2020 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 × 10 -4 Note: The figure plots, for each country, the mean (solid blue line) and median (dashed red line) of the simulated distribution of the time-varying recession mean component, u τ 1 . ECB Working Paper Series No 2381 / March 2020 58
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Acknowledgements We would like to thank our colleagues of the ESCB Expert Group on Nonlinear Models for their stimulating and helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are in no way the responsibility of the Banco de España, European Central Bank, Eurosystem, or Magyar Nemzeti Bank. Danilo Leiva-Leon Banco de España, Madrid, Spain; email: [email protected] Gabriel Perez-Quiros European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; CEPR; email: [email protected] Eyno Rots Magyar Nemzeti Bank, Budapest, Hungary; email: [email protected] © European Central Bank, 2020 Postal address 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany Telephone +49 69 1344 0 Website All rights reserved. Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the authors. This paper can be downloaded without charge from , from the Social Science Research Network electronic library or from RePEc: Research Papers in Economics . Information on all of the papers published in the ECB Working Paper Series can be found on the ECB’s website . PDF ISBN 978-92-899-4024-5 ISSN 1725-2806 doi:10.2866/24670 QB-AR-20-033-EN-N
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  • Economics, Recession, Late-2000s recession, GWI

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