A 1 3 5 7 11 12 13 14 15 17 19 b 2 4 6 8 9 10 16 18

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Exercise 11-10 (a) = 1, 3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 17, 19 (b) = 2, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 16, 18, 20 Exercise 11-11 Note: Though the instructions point out that “there is not necessarily a correct answer,” the hypotheses that seem better to us are listed below. We provide more detail with the “triangled” answers from the text. 1. Answers (b) and (d) seem better in that one can at least see how their being true could result in more cases of flu in the winter. 2. Answer (b) seems most plausible. Answer (a) is almost circular. Answer (c) seems implausible, unless texting is meant to include every kind of involvement with technology, video gaming, listening to iPods, surfing the Web, etc. 3. Answers (c) and (d) are most believeable. 4. Answer (c) is the least plausible, because it is difficult to see how less NASCAR racing could reduce death by stroke. 5. All seem equally plausible. 6. Answer (c) seems the weakest, if he almost always sneezes under these conditions (and almost always sneezing isn't his natural condition). 7. Answer (c) seems most plausible, but not very plausible. 8. Answer (a) seems best; (c) seems the worst. 9. Answer (d) doesn't seem likely, but the other options seem even less likely--by a big margin. 10. Answer (d) is the best theory. Statistical regression offers an attractive explanation of why the team didn’t do as well. 11. (1) Girls who said they frequently read dieting articles misreported their weight concerns in 1999; (2) Weight concerns were increased by frequent reading of dieting articles. IM – 11 | 6
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Exercise 11-12 Suggestions, hints: Churchgoers are less likely to use tobacco; they are less likely to use alcohol and thus drive under its influence. Exercise 11-13 ▲1. a 2. a 3. a ▲4. c 5. b 6. c ▲7. a 8. a 9. b ▲10. b 11. a 12. a 13. b ▲14. a 15. b 16. a ▲17. b 18. a 19.a ▲20. a Exercise 11-14 First, notice that Lungren’s argument is an IBE, an inference to the best explanation. An alternative explanation would be that reduced unemployment lowered crime. Or perhaps there were changes in crime reporting. Were there changes in statutes or enforcement practices? For example, did use of marijuana for medical reasons become legal, or did police place less emphasis on certain types of crime? Could the decrease have been mainly in categories unaffected by the three-strikes law? Lundgren said there was no single event or activity, etc., that could explain the drop in the crime rate. Perhaps the drop was due to multiple causes not having to do with “three strikes.” Exercise 11-15 What is called for ideally is a side-by-side comparison of classes that are identical in all relevant respects except that in one attendance is required and in the other it isn’t. In the real world, the best a teacher could do is compare identical final exam results of multiple sections of the same size of the same course taught at nearly the same time during a single semester as well as at exactly the same time across different semesters, while requiring attendance in some sections and not in others.
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