Between mainland china and hong kong sar of china

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between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR of China between mainland China and Macao SAR of China; and between mainland China and Taiwan, Province of China
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16 Scenario analysis of COVID-19 outbreak impact for 1Q 2020 Baseline (hypothetical situation without COVID-19 outbreak) Seat capacity: used "originally-planned" winter schedule Load factor: applied 78% for Chinese carriers, 80% for foreign carriers and 87% for LCCs (both Chinese and foreign) Scenario 1 (mild) Seat capacity: estimated by airlines' schedule changes Load factor: applied the same % as baseline in January; 15 and 12 percentage points lower than baseline in February and March, respectively (30 and 25 percentage points lower for “Regional”; 15 percentage points lower in March for Korea, Iran and Italy) Scenario 2 (severe) Seat capacity: estimated by airlines' schedule changes Load factor: applied the same % as baseline in January, 25 and 22 percentage points lower than baseline in February and March, respectively (40 and 33 percentage points lower for “Regional”; 25 percentage points lower in March for Korea, Iran and Italy)
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17 Source : OAG scheduled data Baseline: 10% seat capacity increase compared to 1Q 2019 A total of YoY 10% seat capacity increase originally - planned for 1Q 2020 despite the reduction of capacity between mainland China and Hong Kong SAR and Taiwan Province Impact of Hong Kong protests
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Number of seats offered by airlines (1Q 2020 originally-planned) Source : OAG Scheduled data 18 Capacity share 1Q 2020 48%: International by Chinese carriers 36%: International by foreign carriers 7% Mainland China - Hong Kong SAR 3% Mainland China - Macao SAR 6% Mainland China - Taiwan Province
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19 Scenarios 1 & 2: 47% seat capacity reduction from Baseline Source : ICAO estimates based on OAG, Routes Online and airline websites
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20 Source : ICAO estimates 18.2 to 19.0 million “international” passenger reduction in 1Q 2020 compared to Baseline
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21 Source : ICAO estimates 3.8 to 3.9 million “regional” passenger reduction in 1Q 2020 compared to Baseline
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