Exam 4 Inductive reasoning

Anchoring adjustment heuristic anchoring adjustment

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Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic Results: The "anchor" biased people's estimates Use an "anchor" and adjust your answer on the basis of additional information Selectively look for information that supports our hypothesis and overlook information that contradicts it Wason (1960) You will be given three numbers which conform to a simple rule I have in mind…Your aim is to discover this rule by writing down sets of three numbers together with your reasons for your choice of them. After you have written down each set, I shall tell you whether your number conform to the rule or not. When you feel highly confident that you have discovered the rule, you are to write it down and tell me what it is. 2,4,6 follows the rule Confirmation Bias
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Inductive Reasoning 7 Results: ___ discovered the rule with no incorrect guesses ___ made one wrong guess ___ made two or more wrong guesses ___ never discovered the rule Wason (1960) Conclusions: People have a confirmation bias 8,10,12 100,102,104 Need to test examples counter to the hypothesis 2, 4, 5 3, 5, 7 Wason (1960)
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  • Spring '08
  • Fasig
  • Inductive Reasoning, Daniel Kahneman, representative, Tversky, truck drivers

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