missiles near Taiwan to prove to the people of Taiwan that their missiles can reach them if they chose the wrong president and forced the issue of independence? Another thing is that the PRC would launch an offensive attack on Taiwan if Shu Chin-Chiang was elected president, so to
prove that the PRC are serious about an imminent attack they kept on raising their readiness and testing their offensive capabilities.Section III– Second Most Likely to Occur: Direct AttackThe PRC would launch an attack against Taiwan. PRC’s military level increased months prior to the election of the next President of Taiwan. When the PRC began increasing military personnel that was a sign of upcoming deployment of forces against Taiwan. The People’s, Liberation Army (PLA) publicized missile tests, order large scale exercises, and even issue tentative mobilization orders to move troops across the strait from Taiwan. With all of these indicators I deduced the PLA is preparing to go to war. The PLA had assembled B-6 bombers from Luqiao airfield that were photographed loading air-to-surface munitions 20 days prior to the election. What’s more, the US Pacific Command reported that Fighter patrols in the straits of Taiwan had increased by 50 percent. (PRC-Taiwan Crisis, 10). The purpose for increased patrols could have been to conduct reconnaissance of the shores of Taiwan to pin point the best landing area for the PLA infantry that had been preparing to mobilize according to the Taiwan intelligence. There was evidence to support that there would not be a direct attack, but it was too weak to completely rule out an attack. 50 days prior to the elections “Taiwan’s current President Chen Shui-bian (DPP) agreed to send representatives to the mainland to discuss the current situation (PRC-Taiwan Crisis, 8).” 20 days after the President increased security levels he lowered it to show good faith to the PRC.