(INR 2.97/ kWh in the Rewa Solar plant in Madhya Pradesh and INR 3.46/kWh for wind power plants) have made renewables economically competitive with other fossil fuel sources. However, the cost of balancing the renewable electricity has to be taken into account which would bring out the actual cost of electricity generated from renewables. 3. India’s reliance on coal will persist even in 2047 with an envisaged share of 42%-50%in energy mix. India would like to use its abundant coal reserves as it provides a cheap source of energy and ensures energy security as well. However, the imports of coal have risen at a CAGR of 18% from 2005-06 (39 MT) to 2015-16 (200 MT). The modeling exercise of NITI shows that India will achieve peak production of coal in 2037, after which the production will decline and India will depend on imports to meet its requirements. Therefore, India would like to use its coal reserves efficiently. Keeping in mind the adverse impacts of climate change, it becomes pertinent to explore clean coal technology options in India.
4Therefore, India Energy Security Scenarios (IESS) 2047 has been used to capture the above three objectives and come out with a comprehensive quantitative analysis. Moreover, three separate studies have also been undertaken in order to have a deeper dive in the above three topics.
51. INTRODUCTIONIndia’s energy sector is set for a sea change with recent developmental ambitions of the Government of India – 175 GW of installed capacity of renewable energy by 2022, 24X7 Power for all by 2022, Housing for all by 2022, 100 smart cities mission, 10% reduction of oil and gas import dependence by 2022 from 2014-15 levels and provision of clean cooking fuels. India is envisaged to play a key role in the global energy scenario amidst the present trends in the favor of energy buyers rather than suppliers which are likely to continue in the medium term. India is likely to account for 25% of the rise in global energy demand by 2040 (International Energy Agency). As India’s energy and electricity demand is likely to grow at a CAGR of 3.7%-4.5% and 5.4%-5.7% respectively till 2047, the pressure on natural resources to fuel the demand would only rise in the future. With a share of 18% in the world population, India consumes only 6% of the world’s primary energy. This is evident from the low per capita energy consumption of India (521 kgoe in 2014) which is one-third of the world’s average. Moreover, India houses nearly 304 million people without access to electricity (25% of the global population without access to electricity) and 800 million people without access to clean cooking fuels (30% of the global population without access to clean cooking fuels). India certainly aims to reduce its energy poverty in a sustainable manner keeping in mind the energy independence and the impact of these objectives on economic growth. The energy mix of India and the world is given below to give a snapshot of the fuels used to meet the energy demand: 58.1%27.9%6.5%2.2%4.0%1.2%RenewablesOilHydro electricNuclear EnergyCoalNatural GasFigure 1- Source: BP Statistics (2016)Energy Mix of India (2015)