Goods trade by development status trillion 43 35 33 29 30 31 32

Goods trade by development status trillion 43 35 33

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Goods trade by development status, % $ trillion (current) 55 51 43 35 33 29 30 31 32 30 8 9 12 14 16 6 9 10 5 6 8 10 10 4 1995 2000 16 3 05 South-South China-North 10 5 2016 15 China-South South-North North-North 100% = 7 11 Change in value of trade, 1996–2016 Multiple 6x 11x 6x 3x 2x South-South and China-South share of global goods trade rose from 8% to 20%
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13 McKinsey & Company Automation could be an important source of labor productivity in emerging economies. Annual labor productivity growth potential due to automation Annual growth rate 2015–30 % Share of current work activities that could be displaced by 2030 due to automation % of total work activity hours 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 Indonesia Nigeria Philippines China India Brazil Mexico Kenya 0.8–1.4 20 16 12 18 18 14 11 7 15 Outperformers Non- outperformer emerging economies Global average
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14 McKinsey & Company With a boost in productivity, emerging markets can drive 72% of additional global growth and represent 55% of GDP by 2030. 2015 2030 baseline scenario 22% 19% 58% 2030 productivity boost scenario 112 2030 35 67 11 Outperformers Non-outperformers High income % of 2030 GDP 45% % of additional global growth 25% 33% 30% 39% 28% Incremental opportunity of $11 trillion Global GDP potential scenario $ trillion, constant 2010 $ 55% 72%
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15 McKinsey & Company -3 4 Quartile 1 6 Quartile 3 5 8 Quartile 2 Quartile 4 7 -4 -2 9 -1 0 1 2 3 Côte d’Ivoire Senegal Heat map score based on fundamental indicators, 2011–16 Bolivia Cameroon Ecuador Dominican Republic Peru Mozambique GDP per capita growth CAGR 2011–16, % Nigeria Pakistan Rwanda Algeria Colombia Angola Sri Lanka Tanzania Bangladesh Morocco Paraguay Philippines Kenya Sustaining recent momentum could help some emerging economies join the next wave of outperformers. 3.5% Countries with top quartile heat map scores and top quartile growth rates Countries with top quartile heat map scores but lower growth Countries with second quartile heat map scores 1 2 3
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Download MGI research at @McKinsey_MGI McKinseyGlobalInstitute
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