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But according to Drucker, we are now in an age of discontinuity and extrapolating from the past is hopelessly ineffective. We cannot assume that trends that exist today will continue into the future. He identifies four sources of discontinuity: new technologies, globalization, cultural pluralism, and knowledge capital.In 2000, Gary Hameldiscussed strategic decay, the notion that the value of all strategies, no matter how brilliant, decays over time.In 1978, Dereck Abell(Abell, D. 1978) described strategic windowsand stressed the importance of the timing (both entrance and exit) of any given strategy. This has lead some strategic planners to build planned obsolescenceinto their strategies.In 1989, Charles Handyidentified two types of change.Strategic driftis a gradual change that occurs so subtly that it is not noticed until it is too late. By contrast, transformational changeis sudden and radical. It is typically caused by discontinuities (or exogenousshocks) in the business environment. The point where a new trend is initiated is called a strategic inflection pointby Andy Grove. Inflection points can be subtle or radical.In 2000, Malcolm Gladwelldiscussed the importance of the tipping point, that point where a trend or fad acquires critical mass and takes off.In 1983, Noel Tichyrecognized that because we are all beings of habit we tend to repeat what we are comfortable with.He wrote that this is a trap that constrains our creativity, prevents us from exploring new ideas, and hampers our dealing with the full complexityof new issues. He developed a systematic method of dealing with change that involved looking at any new issue from three angles: technical and production, political and resource allocation, and corporate culture.In 1990, Richard Pascale(Pascale, R. 1990) wrote that relentless change requires that businesses continuously reinvent themselves.His famous maxim is “Nothing fails like success” by which he means that what was a strength yesterday becomes the root of weakness today, We tend to depend on what worked yesterday and refuse to let go of
19what worked so well for us in the past. Prevailing strategies become self-confirming. In order to avoid this trap, businesses must stimulate a spirit of inquiry and healthy debate. They must encourage a creative process of self renewal based on constructive conflict.In 1996, Art Kleiner(1996) claimed that to foster a corporate culture that embraces change, you have to hire the right people; heretics, heroes, outlaws, and visionaries. The conservative bureaucratthat made such a good middle manager in yesterday’s hierarchicalorganizations is of little use today. A decade earlier Peters and Austin (1985) had stressed the importance of nurturing champions and heroes. They said we have a tendency to dismiss new ideas, so to overcome this, we should support those few people in the organization that have the courage to put their career and reputation on the line for an unproven idea.