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A 51 b 53 c 55 d 57 answer c 55 solution the adjusted

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a. 51b. 53c. 55d. 57Answer: c. 55Solution:The adjusted forecast for February, AF2, is the same as the exponentially smoothed forecast, since thetrend computing factor will be zero i.e. F1and F2are the same and T2= 0. Thus, we compute the adjustedforecast for March, AF3, as follows:T3= (0.30)(38.537.0) + (10.30)(0)T3= 0.45AF3= F3 + T3AF3= 38.5 +0.45AF3= 38.95 unitsPeriodMonthDemandForecast, Ft+1Trend Tt+1AFt+11January3737.00--2February4037.000.0037.003March4138.500.4538.954April3739.750.6940.445May4538.370.0738.446June5041.681.0442.737July4345.841.9747.828August4744.420.9545.379September5645.711.0546.7610October5250.852.2853.1311November5551.421.7653.1912December5453.211.7754.9813January-53.611.3654.97T13= (0.30)(53.6153.21) + (0.70)(1.77)T13= 1.36AF13= 53.61 + 1.36AF13= 54.97 = 55 units for January next year
Solved Problems in Production Planning & Control201268 |P a g e8. In reference to problem no. 4, the demand data for computers appears to follow an increasing lineartrend. The company wants to compute a linear trend line to see if it is more accurate than exponentialsmoothing and adjusted exponential smoothing forecast. What is the forecast on period 13?a. 52b. 54c. 56d. 58Answer: d. 58Solution:Least Squares Calculations:x (period)y (demand)xyx21373712408043411239437148165452252565030036743301498473766495650481105252010011556051211254648144Total78557386765078x = --------------- = 6.512557y = --------------- = 46.42123867[(12)(6.5)(46.42)]b= -----------------------------------------------650[12(6.5)2]b = 1.72a = 46.42(1.72)(6.5)a = 35.2y = 35.2 + 1.72xy = 35.2 + 1.72(13) = 57.56 = 58 units for period 13
Solved Problems in Production Planning & Control201269 |P a g e9. Delima Farms grows chickens to sell to a meat processing company throughout the year. However, itspeak season is obviously during the fourth quarter of the year, from October to December. DelimaFarms has experienced the demand for chickens for the past three years shown in the following table:Demand for Chickens at Delima Farms:Demand (1,000s) per QuarterYear1234Total200912.68.66.317.545.0201014.110.37.518.250.1201115.310.68.119.653.6Total42.029.521.955.3148.7What are the forecast per quarter in year 2012?a. 12, 8, 7, 18b. 14, 10, 8, 20c. 16, 12, 9, 22d. 18, 14, 10, 20Answer: c. 16, 12, 9, 22Solution:42.0S1= ---------------- = 0.28148.729.5S2= ---------------- = 0.20148.721.9S3= ---------------- = 0.15148.755.3S4= ---------------- = 0.37148.7Linear Trend Line for three years:y = 40.97 + 4.30xy = 40.97 + 4.30(4)y = 58.17SF1= (S1)(F5) = (0.28)(58.17) = 16.28 = 16SF2= (S2)(F5) = (0.20)(58.17) = 11.63 = 12SF3= (S3)(F5) = (0.15)(58.17) = 8.73 = 9SF4= (S4)(F5) = (0.37)(58.17) = 21.53 = 22
Solved Problems in Production Planning & Control201270 |P a g e10. The Tomas University athletic department wants to develop its budget for the coming year using aforecast for football attendance. Football attendance accounts for the largest portion of its revenues,and the athletic director believes attendance is directly related to the number of wins by the team. Thebusiness manger has accumulated total annual attendance for the past eight years.No. of WinsAttendanceNo. of WinsAttendance(1,000s)(1,000s)436.3644.0640.1745.6641.2539.0853.0747.5Given the number of returning starters and the strength of the schedule, the athletic director believes theteam will win at least seven games next year. Develop a simple regression equation for this data toforecast attendance next year.

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Term
Fall
Professor
HENRY I CABATAY
Tags
Production Planning Control

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