The gas based capacity would decline to 36 GW in 2040 in high gas price

The gas based capacity would decline to 36 gw in 2040

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scenarios. The gas based capacity would decline to 36 GW in 2040 in high gas price scenario because the gas price in this scenario ($18/mmbtu in 2040) is highest amongst all the scenarios and India would not be able to absorb gas at such high prices. Another point to be noted is that coal power plants would continue to play a significant role in the electricity generation mix of India. Though, the coal based capacity is seen to be replaced by gas based capacity in Low gas price and Long term market driven scenario due to low gas prices, this would be not be possible in other scenarios. Therefore, the WEPS+ model shows us that fuel prices impact the installed capacity of electricity generation in India significantly. This is because the installed capacity of India is growing rapidly with increasing energy demand and variations in fuel prices can influence what fuel power plants to install. 9.4. Electricity Generation and Mix: The total electricity generation rises to 4591 TWh in 2040 as per the WEPS + modeling analysis. Electricity Generation grows at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2012-40. Figure 23 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 Electricity Generation (TWh) CAGR (2012-40)- 5.4% 52
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Figure 23 depicts the electricity generation in India till 2040. The electricity mix in India in different scenarios is given in the following figure. Figure 24 gives the electricity mix of India in 2040 in various scenarios. The coal has a dominant share in the electricity mix even in 2040 ranging from 56% - 63% except in the Low gas price and Long term market driven scenario. Because, the gas based installed capacity significantly rise in the latter scenarios, the share of coal based electricity declines and comes in t range of 38% - 41% in 2040. Moreover, the share of RE based electricity remains the same at 26% in all the scenarios except Low RE scenario where the share dips to 15% in 2040 because the total RE capacity is only 285 GW in 2040 in Low RE scenario in comparison with 479 GW in other 5 scenarios in 2040. 9.5. Sectoral Natural Gas Demand as per WEPS+: As already mentioned above, the consumption of natural gas in India is highly price sensi- tive as would vary significantly upon changes in price. Since, the natural gas production of India has been declining from the last 5 years, India would have to largely depend on the imported LNG to meet its requirements. The natural gas consumption in India was 54 BCM in 2015-16 which is expected to rise by 2040 and the rise would depend on various scenarios as given in the figure below. Figure 24 5% 7% 7% 26% 22% 3% 11% 77% 57% 56% 38% 41% 60% 63% 11% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 Base Case Immediate Market Driven Long Term Market Driven Low Gas Price High Gas Price Low RE Electricity Mix 2040 Liquids Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydroelectricity Renewables 53
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Figure 25 depicts the natural gas demand sectorally in India in 2040 in all the 6 scenarios. The natural gas demand lies in the range of 227-257 BCM in 2040 in the Base case, Immediate market driven and Low RE scenarios. Whereas, the gas demand rises significantly in the Low gas
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