M1.3: When it comes to world population, size matters!: ANSC 100 Summer 2018 (WC).pdf

Figure 6 effect of level of education on number of

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Figure 6. Effect of level of education on number of children per women in majority Muslim countries
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5/19/18, 5(35 AM M1.3: When it comes to world population, size matters!: ANSC 100 Summer 2018 (WC) Page 2 of 6 Projected 2010- 2015 Projected 2030- 2035 Niger 6.9 5.3 Afghanistan 6.3 4.4 Somalia 6.2 4.3 Chad 5.8 3.8 Burkina Faso 5.6 3.6 Mali 5.2 3.5 Guinea 5.0 3.2 Sierra Leone 5.0 3.4 Yemen 4.7 2.8 Gambia 4.6 3.0 Palestinian territories 4.5 2.9 Senegal 4.5 2.9 Projected 2010- 2015 Projected 2030- 2035 Iran 1.7 1.9 Tunisia 1.8 1.9 Albania 1.9 1.9 Lebanon 1.9 1.9 United Arab Emirates 1.9 1.9 Maldives 1.9 1.9 Brunei 2.0 1.9 Indonesia 2.0 1.9 Turkey 2.1 1.9 Kuwait 2.1 1.9 Bahrain 2.1 1.9 Azerbaijan 2.1 1.9 Note: Among Muslim-majority countries, ranked as of 2010-15 Source: Total Fertility Rate, U.N. Rankings are determined by unrounded number; Lebanon and Albania are exactly tied, but some other countries may appear to be tied due to rounding. Pew Research Center's Forum on Religion & Public Life The Future of the Global Muslim Population , January 2011 Less-Educated Immigrants Have Significantly More Children than Less-Educated Natives Mother's Education Native TFR Immigrant TFR < High School 2.27 3.30 High School Only 2.32 3.37 Some College 1.81 2.04 College or More 1.79 1.91
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5/19/18, 5(35 AM M1.3: When it comes to world population, size matters!: ANSC 100 Summer 2018 (WC) Page 3 of 6 College or More 1.79 1.91 Figure 7: Center for Immigration Studies Analysis of 2002 American Community Survey. One final thought on birth rates. While I told you earlier that 2.1 children per family is optimal; you know the replacement rate. If a couple has two children, they “replace” themselves in the world population without added or decreasing it. Now some of you might rightly argue that we should be shooting for less than 2 so that world population actually decreases. Well, while this might be good for the planet, it is not so good for countries. Once population growth falls below replacement rate, countries begin to have problems which grow greater over time (the classic snowball effect). Here is how it works. Most countries have some sort of social safety net (aka social security or pension) to care for their citizens in their old age (non-working years). The cost of this social safety net is borne largely by the younger workers. So, when population growth falls below the replacement rate, the average age of the population increases (it grows older) leaving fewer workers to supporting more retirees . This can also happen when there is a sudden spike in the birth rate like occurred right after World War II. This created the “baby boomer” generation, the oldest of which started retiring in 2011 and the youngest of which won’t retire for another 20 years (like me!). Whether the imbalance is caused by a spike in births or a decline in births, it can really spiral out of control and devastate a country’s economy. But let’s also look on the bright side, one
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  • Spring '17
  • Robert mikesell
  • Demography, Test Prep, World population

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