Chapter 12

Instead identify a limited list of more obvious

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instead, identify a limited list of more obvious choices - rather than carefully reviewing & evaluating, ppl settle on alternative that’s “good enough” → and ends the search satisfice = to provide a solution that’s both satisfactory & sufficient (“good enough”) - decision makes choose final solutions that satisfice , rather than optimize e.g. manager interviews job candidates only until someone “good enough” is found Intuition - growing recognition that relying on intuition can improve decision making - can be wrong (good intuition results from recognition of pattern in situation & drawing upon previous learned info to arrive quickly @ decision) intuitive decision making = subconscious process created out of a person’s many experiences - does not necessarily operate w/o rational analysis - best used when time + “facts” limited; policies, rules, guidelines do not give clear advice; uncertainty exists; quantitative analysis of little use; no precedent; variables less scientifically predictable; several plausible solutions When making decisions, make sure you: define problem as best as you can are clear on factors that will be used to make decision collect enough alternatives that you can clearly differentiate among them Judgment Shortcuts heuristics = judgment shortcuts in decision making
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P ART 4: S HARING THE O RGANIZATIONAL V ISION Framing = error in judgment that arises from selective use of perspective (the way in which a set of ideas, facts, info is presented) that alters the way we view a situation in formulating a decision e.g. identical problem addressed in two ways → create opposite conclusions Statistical Regression to the Mean = statistical observation that an above-average performance is often followed by a lesser performance, while a below-average performance is more likely followed by a better performance; result is average performance over time (failure to recognize that performances tend toward the average, rather than extremes - may be particular interest for those trying to decide whether rewards or punishments work better with employees, colleagues, children, friends - regression to the mean: b/c each person has average performance level Availability Heuristic = tendency for ppl to base their judgments on info that’s readily available to them, rather than complete data - we tend to overestimate unlikely events (e.g. airplane crash) b/c events that evoke emotions, particularly vivid, or have occurred recently are more available in memory Representativ e Heuristic = tendency to assess the likelihood of an occurrence by trying to match it w/ a pre- existing category e.g. 3 graduates from the same university hired but performed poorly; manager might predict that a current job applicant from the same university would also do poorly Ignoring the Base Rate = error in judgment – ignoring statistical likelihood that an event might happen e.g. ppl believe they’ll succeed in founding a business even when failure rate is 90% Escalation of Commitment = increased commitment to a pervious decision despite –ve info - ppl escalate commitment to a failing course of action when they view themselves as
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instead identify a limited list of more obvious choices...

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