Printing and Writing segment demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.2% and reach 5.3 million tonnes in FY19. The demand is expected to grow on account of an anticipated pick-up from the education sector with improving literacy rates and growing enrolment as well as increasing number of schools and colleges. Packaging paper & board segment caters to industries such as FMCG, food & beverage, pharmaceutical, textiles, etc. Demand for Packaging Paper & Board segment is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.9% and reach 9.7 million tonnes in FY19 due tofactors such as increased urbanization, requirement of better quality packaging of FMCG products marketed through organized retail, and increasing preference for ready-to-eat foods. Improving literacy rates, rising circulation and an increasing number of newspapers and magazines is expected to support growth in newsprint demand which is expected to reach 2.7 million tonnes in FY19. Additionally, the Chinese Government has banned the import of several varieties of waste paper, which is the primary raw material for finished paper. Consequently, the production of finished paper is expected to be hampered in China. This in turn is expected to lead to some relief in raw material prices and improve realizations.
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Industry ResearchI Paper 5 Demand Drivers Rising income levels & growing per capita expenditure In the last decade, Indian economy has progressed rapidly. Correspondingly, India’s per capita GDP has increased from Rs 71,607 in FY12 to Rs. 117,406 in FY17 at a CAGR of 10.4% fuelling a consumption boom in the country. Correspondingly, the per capita personal disposable income surged from Rs 73,476 in FY12 to Rs 119,296 in FY17 at a CAGR of 10.2%. Also, the per capita private final consumption expenditure too rose from Rs 40,250 in FY12 to Rs.68,049 in FY17 at a CAGR of 11.1%. The growth in country’s per capita GDP in turn has increased the disposable income of the populace ultimately driving the country’s consumption.Source: Central Statistics Office (CSO) A larger proportion of earning population to drive consumption The growing Indian population has also led to increase in the ‘earning population’ (age group 15-60) of the country. The proportion of Indian populace in the age group of 15-64 years increased from 55.4% in 1991 to 66.2% in 2016 (Source: CIA –The World Factbook). Considering the large size of the Indian population, the lower median age implies a higher number of working people thereby clearly outlining the immense earning as well as spending potential of the Indian populace. Taking into account the age group below 25 years being one of the highest spending age group, the current age dynamics are expected to boost the retail sales in India. The median age of India is 26.7 years, one of the lowest globally in comparison to 37.2 years in the US, 45.8 years in Japan and 36.3 years in China.
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