348 Latour in Knorr Cetina K and M J Mulkay Science

348 latour in knorr cetina k and m j mulkay science

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348 Ibid, 45, 349 Ibid, 59. 350 Latour in Knorr-Cetina, K., and M. J. Mulkay, Science Observed: Perspectives on the Social Study of Science, London: Sage Publications, 1983, 143. 351 Ibid, 144. 352 Ibid, 14.
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Chapter 11: Chaos Theory and U.S. Military Strategy: A ‘Leapfrog’ Strategy for U.S. Defense Policy Michael J. Mazarr Applying chaos theory to U.S. military strategy and force structure is a perilous business. Some would doubt whether the theory has much meaningful application in social science at all. What, after all, are its recommendations? That rapid and discontinuous change is inevitable, the product of "sensitive dependence on initial conditions"? That we must be prepared for surprises? That we must be agile and flexible and quick on our feet? If chaos theory is not to degenerate into an annoying repetition of the same themes, its practitioners must begin offering its practical lessons in a manner that can be understood by military planners. And its lesson is not, I should make clear, that the U.S. military needs to be ready for peacekeeping and other operations other than war in a "chaotic" post-cold war world; such short-term political chaos has very little to do with the vastly more profound and fundamental insights of chaos theory. No, if the theory is to make a real contribution to defense policy, it must do something more: without being determinative, it must point us in the direction of a coherent planning framework for U.S. military forces. I believe that it can do so, and in this paper I will explain how. At the same time, at this point in its emerging application to the social sciences, chaos or complexity theory certainly cannot provide comprehensive answers. As Dr. Murray Gell- Mann stressed on the conference’s first day, chaos theory remains in its formative stages; it is useful mostly as a spur to reconsider old ways of doing business and take seriously rapid and unpredictable change. My recommendations for force structure, for example, stem as much from an appreciation of accelerating change as from "complexity"— but chaos theory can help advocates of change make their case. The Knowledge Era and International Relations To begin with, it is noteworthy that the social and economic context of the post-cold war world parallels in important ways the kind of world described by chaos theory. In large measure this has to do with the emergence of a knowledge-based society, a transformation of social and economic life that is overturning the institutions and patterns and assumptions of the industrial era and substituting those of a new age. There is a vast literature on the information or knowledge era, and I will not attempt to summarize its conclusions in any detail. Professor James Rosenau said a few words about this kind of world on the first day of the conference, and there are few better introductions to its character and implications than his own Turbulence in World Politics.1 In brief, it involves the establishment of information and knowledge— their production, dissemination, storage, and use—as the fundamental social and economic activity, rather than the cultivation of agriculture or the production of
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