12 BCM in 2047 in High Gas scenario whereas it would be only 5 BCM in 2047 in

12 bcm in 2047 in high gas scenario whereas it would

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12 BCM in 2047 in High Gas scenario, whereas it would be only 5 BCM in 2047 in BAU scenario. 6. SNAPSHOT OF TOTAL NATURAL GAS DEMAND ACROSS DIFFERENT SECTORS 3.5 8.0 5 12 0 5 10 15 0 2 4 6 8 10 2012 2040 2047 Gas Demand (BCM) Installed Capacity (GW) Total Natural Gas Demand (BCM) 2012 2040 2047 Sector BAU High Gas BAU High Gas Industry 35 128 177 159 223 cooking 1.8 15.4 15.2 18.2 18.3 Transport 1 11.9 12.6 16.8 17.1 Gas Power Stations 20 32 53 35 71 CCS 0 4 9 5 12 Total 58 191 267 234 341 Figure 13 Gas Capacity in GW (BAU Scenario) Gas Capacity in GW (High Gas Scenario) Gas Demand in BCM (BAU Scenario) Gas Demand in BCM (High Gas Scenario) Impact of CCS Deployment on Gas Demand Table 1 40
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Table 1 gives an overview of the natural gas demand across different demand and supply sectors discussed above. The gas demand would rise from 58 BCM in 2012 to 234 BCM in 2047 in the BAU scenario and would rise to 341 BCM in the High Gas scenario. Therefore, there is a 46% increase in gas demand in 2047 in the High gas scenario when compared with BAU. 7. OVERVIEW OF INDIA’S ENERGY SCENARIO – RESULTS DERIVED FROM IESS 2047 Having explained the natural gas demand in BAU and High Gas scenario in the above sections, this section further seeks to give an overview of India’s Energy Scenario till 2047 in BAU and High Gas Scenario. The following sections would give primary energy supply, energy demand, installed capacity and electricity generation etc. which would give a better understanding of the overall energy scenario of India. 7.1. Energy Demand: Table 2 Energy Demand (TWh) 2012 2047 BAU Scenario High Gas Scenario Buildings 239 2971 2450 Industry 2359 12855 10279 Transport 929 5528 3604 Agriculture 237 798 636 Telecom 83 231 131 Cooking 1066 522 463 Total Energy Demand 4912 22905 17565 Table 2 gives the energy demand till 2047 for BAU and High Gas scenario. Since, the High Gas scenario assumes greater penetration of energy efficiency measures than BAU, the energy demand in the former is less than the latter. For e.g. the specific energy consumption for the indus- trial processes would reduce through energy efficient appliances, increased penetration of efficient appliances in the buildings sector, enhanced penetration of fuel efficient vehicles along with transit oriented development etc., all these interventions lead to reduced demand in the High gas scenario. 41
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Table 3 gives the Installed Capacity in BAU and High Gas scenario. The gas based installed capacity is 83 GW in 2047 in the High Gas scenario, whereas the same is 50 GW in 2047 in BAU scenario. Also, the High Gas scenario has an increased penetration of RE installed capacity i.e. 1117 GW in 2047, whereas the installed capacity of renewables is 1105 GW in 2047 in BAU scenario. 7.3. Primary Energy Supply: 7.2. Installed Capacity: Table 4 Table 3 Primary Energy Supply (TWh) 2012 2047 BAU Scenario High Gas Scenario Renewables and Clean Energy 267 3266 3817 Agriculture/waste 1060 1510 1936 Coal 3272 13959 12229 Oil 1938 8434 5409 Natural gas 562 2331 3263 Total 7100 29500 26654 Table 4 gives the primary energy supply in 2047 for BAU and High Gas Scenario. Since, the High Gas scenario considers a higher penetration of natural gas and renewables than BAU, the energy supply from these two sources is higher in the former scenario. The share of natural gas in
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