Capex 10 module nominal capex capex 10 module capex

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CAPEX -10% module Nominal CAPEX CAPEX +10% module CAPEX +20% module 10.24% R$ 3.34/Wp R$ 3.55/Wp R$ 3.75/Wp R$ 3.95/Wp R$ 4.15/Wp Investment R$ 355.1 Millions R$ 376.7 Millions R$ 398.2 Millions R$ 419.7 Millions R$ 441.2 Millions R$ 170/MWh 5.21% 3.52% 1.92% 0.39% -1.09% R$ 180/MWh 6.91% 5.21% 3.61% 2.10% 0.65% R$ 190/MWh 8.54% 6.81% 5.21% 3.70% 2.26% R$ 200/MWh 10.12% 8.35% 6.73% 5.20% 3.77% R$ 210/MWh 11.64% 9.84% 8.18% 6.65% 5.20% R$ 220/MWh 13.14% 11.29% 9.60% 8.03% 6.57% R$ 230/MWh 14.61% 12.70% 10.97% 9.38% 7.90% R$ 240/MWh 16.06% 14.10% 12.32% 10.69% 9.18% R$ 250/MWh 17.49% 15.47% 13.64% 11.97% 10.43% R$ 260/MWh 18.91% 16.82% 14.94% 13.22% 11.65% R$ 270/MWh 20.32% 18.16% 16.22% 14.46% 12.85% R$ 280/MWh 21.72% 19.50% 17.50% 15.69% 14.03% R$ 290/MWh 23.12% 20.82% 18.76% 16.90% 15.20% R$ 300/MWh 24.52% 22.14% 20.02% 18.10% 16.36% R$ 310/MWh 25.91% 23.46% 21.27% 19.30% 17.51% R$ 320/MWh 27.31% 24.78% 22.52% 20.49% 18.65% R$ 330/MWh 28.70% 26.09% 23.76% 21.67% 19.78% R$ 340/MWh 30.10% 27.40% 25.01% 22.85% 20.91% Case 2 Scenario 2020 Local Modules
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Using the Tables The tables simulate various scenarios for current and future entrepreneurs who wish to structure centralized generation photovoltaic Projects. With the tables it is possible to check the advantages and disadvantages of some strategic enterprises, in addition to simulate the best timing for construction of the power plants. Then we will use an example of power plant simulation to predict the highest bid for an auction, in addition to the strategies that could be adopted to reduce the bid for energy sale. Example: Hypothetical 90 MW Power Plant to bid for LEN A-4 2017. We will consider a power plant identical to the previously presented for construction of scenarios and find out which would be a good bid to energy sale to the enterprise and the possible strategies. 2017 2018 2019 Condition 1 Condition 2 Auction Auction 2020 Power Plant Construction 2021 Regulated Market Operation Power Plant Construction Free Market Regulated Market Operation Energy Prices are illustrative, as it varies according the each project drivers and assumptions
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Using the Tables 2017 2018 2019 2020 Condition 1 Condition 2 Auction Auction 2021 Power Plant Construction Regulated Market Operation Power Plant Construction Free Market Regulated Market Operation For a power plant that will be built in 2020, we have to use the 2020 scenario and stipulate the CAPEX return and scenario to be adopted. A comparison must be done between the two cases in order to see the advantages and disadvantages of local modules funding and purchasing. Case 1 Imported Module and Case 2 Local Module Scenario 2020 Case 1 Imported Module and Case 2 Local Module Scenario 2019
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Using the Tables 2017 2018 2019 2020 Condition 1 Condition 2 Auction Auction 2021 Power Plant Construction Regulated Market Operation Power Plant Construction Free Market Regulated Market Operation Case 1 - Scenario 2020 Imported Module Nominal CAPEX: $3.17/Wp IRR Required: WACC+2% WACC 2020: 12.95% IRR in the Table: >15.21% Case 2 - Scenario 2020 Local Module Nominal CAPEX: $3.75/Wp IRR Required: WACC+2% WACC 2020: 10.24% IRR in the Table: >12.44% Energy Sales Price in 2020: 250 R$/MWh Energy Sales Price in 2020: ~240 R$/MWh Energy Value in 2017 *: 230.58 R$/MWh Energy Value in 2017 *: ~221.36 R$/MWh *The corrected energy value for 2017 - auction date - recede the IPCA of 2019 and 2018. The IPCA of 2020 shall not be considered because the disbursement is made at the beginning of the year and the model already considers the delivery of the corrected energy for 2021.
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Using the Tables 2017 2018 2019 Condition 1 Condition 2 Auction Auction 2020 Power Plant Construction 2021 Regulated Market Operation
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  • Fall '19
  • Photovoltaics, Weighted average cost of capital

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