agricultural area are the crucial channel. The use of different weather data sets yields comparable results for seasonal
averages (table S3). Including data on political conflicts as controls (table S4) produces important predictors of asylum
applications, but the estimated relationship with temperature only slightly weakens, suggesting that they either pick up
other forms of aggression or persecution because our conflict measures are limited to certain continents and actors or
that the conflict data has measurement error.
In summary, we link annual asylum applications
received by the EU member states to average temperature over the maize
growing area and season in the source country and find a nonlinear
relationship, especially for those applications filed into the richer EU
member states
. Moderate temperatures around 20°C minimize asylum applications. Both colder and hotter
temperatures increase migration flows.
Extrapolating those results, an increase in
temperatures in source countries is predicted to lead to an increase in
asylum applications to the EU as well, following a highly nonlinear response
function
. Our findings support the assessment that climate change, especially continued warming, will add another
“threat multiplier” that induces people to seek refuge abroad.
2. Europe overreacts
and deports en masse
– causes
Middle East nuclear war
Kegl and Virtue ‘15
[Rob and Agnes.
“Migrant crisis and Euro tensions threaten to trigger
catastrophic conflict claim experts” 9/23/15
-
fears-migrant-crisis-could-lead-to-catastrophic-scenario
//GBS-JV]
RISING tensions between central and east European countries over the
escalating migrant
crisis could be the
spark for a catastrophic world
war
,
experts warned
today. Both the Hungarian and Italian prime ministers have spoken of
huge
dangers of unchecked floods of immigrants from Africa and the Middle East
which have set previously
peacable
EU nations
against each other
.
The
scenario
- especially the one currently being played out in Serbia and Hungary -
is
hauntingly similar
to
that which triggered
the First World War
.
The problem has manifesting itself in
central Europe where Hungary is besieged by growing numbers of refugees
passing through from Serbia and Croatia
, forcing its government to build fences to stem the
influx. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán warned European life and its established laws were under threat from
huge numbers of people heading through the continent from war-torn states in the Middle East. In a defence against
criticism of the aggressive stance against refugees taken by the country , he said yesterday: "Our borders are in danger.
Our way of life where we respect the law is in danger. "The whole of Hungary and Europe is in danger. "
The
migrants are blitzing us
."
Hungary and Serbia have constantly been
at each
others' throats
over the issue
, with
Budapest
urging its non-EU neighbours to do more to help
tackle the growing neighbours migrants. It
is now sending troops armed with rubber bullets
