With support from the conservative hierarchy of the

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“With support from the conservative hierarchy of the local Catholic church; of a group b. US using Asymmetric warfare: having a hardline military asset to dismantle government
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3. The plebiscite fraud seeks to delegitimize the Maduro government internationally and turn Venezuela into a rogue or failed state to justify a humanitarian intervention by the US and its allies a. Maduro government tried to undermine the government power b. Take away power from the legislature; called for elections for a constitutional assembly c. Plebiscite: yes or no vote d. No legal mechanism to have a plebiscite in Constitution i. 75-80% of people don’t want a new constitution e. “Leftist” Ricardo Hausman: i. - venezuela ii. Venezuela needs an international military intervention 1. Votes don’t matter, had 3 elections in 2017 2. Military Coup wouldn’t work in Venezuela 3. Trying to convince audience that Venezuela is becoming a failed state a. More acceptable for a military coup if consider Venezuela as a failed state 4. Latin Americans are wary of international military intervention because of past a. national assembly, impeach Maduro and ask military to come step in b. Maduro wants to stay in power, need international force to kick out Maduro and his followers 5. Wants to compare Venezuela to destruction of Europe in WWII a. Image of US as allies rescuing Venezuela 4. The United States and the hegemonic media have won the symbolic battle abroad (not inside), through opinion frameworks in which MUD’s (Movement of Democratic unity, coalition of parties) terrorist violence is always justified and good, while the governmental response is repressive and expected of a pariah state violator of human rights
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5. Maduro and Chavismo’s power resides in a civic/military alliance with a strong command unit, popular organizations, and a militia of 500,000 armed men and women throughout the territory a. Maduro stays in power because he still has widespread support from party, have a strong socialist party and built coalition between military and party 6. They also have the law and institutions in charge of applying them 7. The socialist party is winning elections. Constitutional Assembly. Presidential elections in April (now postponed to May). 3) Is President Trump Right? a. Could cause negative reactions and make the actual military intervention much harder b. Maduro’s minister of foreign relations said “it’s crazy” i. Can use it as propaganda against US 4) Policy Options a. Negotiations with the opposition for free and fair elections b. Military Coup i. Unlikely because Maduro has military in pocket, military is part of Maduro government 1. Military well paid and thus will continue support c. Tougher Sanctions. Effectiveness? i. Maduro’s people were Targeted-Frozen accounts and denied rights, warrants for arrest outside of Venezuela for crimes against humanity ii. Not effective unless US decides to be very radical (oil embargo) 1. 90% of Venezuelan budget relies on Oil 2. US largest importer of oil 3. Oil is hard to refine, import gasoline from US 4. 15% of oil is imported from Venezuela 5. Why is US not using oil embargo?
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  • Spring '07
  • Wahlrab

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