lecture3-SupplyChain-Forecasting

T estimate of trend s t estimate of seasonal factor

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T = estimate of trend S t = estimate of seasonal factor for period t D t = actual demand in period t F t = forecast of demand in period t
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12 Static Methods Estimating level and trend Estimating seasonal factors
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13 Time Series Forecasting (Table 7.1) Forecast demand for the next four quarters. Quarter, Year Demand D t II, 1 8000 III, 1 13000 IV, 1 23000 I, 2 34000 II, 2 10000 III, 2 18000 IV, 2 23000 I, 3 38000 II, 3 12000 III, 3 13000 IV, 3 32000 I, 4 41000
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14 Time Series Forecasting (Figure 7.1) 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
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15 Estimating Level and Trend Before estimating level and trend, demand data must be deseasonalized Deseasonalized demand = demand that would have been observed in the absence of seasonal fluctuations Periodicity ( p ) the number of periods after which the seasonal cycle repeats itself for demand at Tahoe Salt (Table 7.1, Figure 7.1) p = 4
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