With respect to human resources the skills knowledge and experience needed to

With respect to human resources the skills knowledge

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With respect to human resources the skills, knowledge and experience needed to complete each specific activity need to be determined Availability of both human and material resources also needs to be considered
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Managing Time Example of a Resource Breakdown Structure
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Managing Time Example of a Resource Breakdown Structure
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Managing Time Time Management using the PMBoK Estimate Activity Durations The process of estimating the number of work periods required to complete the project activities using the available resources Requires an estimate of work for each of the activities Activity durations are then derived based on the capacity of available resources to complete the estimated amount of work Example Activity A requires an estimated 40 hours of effort by an industrial designer A designer is available 5 days a week and 2 others are available 3 days a week Activity A can be completed in 1 week using one designer for 5 standard 8 hour days The duration could be shortened further if the activity can be split between two or more designers
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Managing Time The process of estimation Estimation is the process of developing predictions All predictions are associated with a certain probability Estimates can be given as a range or a single number with a confidence interval Example A task will take between 5 and 10 days 5 days is the mean (50% likelihood that the task will take 5 days or less) 10 days is the upper bound of the 3 sigma confidence interval (99.73% likelihood that the task will take 10 days or less) There is an 85% likelihood that the task will take 7 days or less
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Managing Time Confidence intervals Confidence intervals are expressed in terms of the standard deviation For a normal (Gaussian) distribution the confidence intervals are given as: 1 σ = 68.26% 2 σ = 95.46% 3 σ = 99.73% 6 σ = 99.99% Large σ = high variability Small σ = low variability
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Managing Time Estimation methods Expert judgement Estimates are based on individual or group assessment Based on intuition, past experience, human case-based reasoning Methods include Delphi and Wideband Delphi Designed to arrive at consensus among a group of experts through comparison of estimates and examination of reasoning Participants in the Delphi method do not interact directly Wideband Delphi requires facilitated direct discussion between the participants Additional considerations: Better accuracy in predictable environments than in less predictable environments Feedback is important especially with respect to how task characteristics relate to actual effort Expert judgement outperforms model-based approaches only in the case of short- term forecasting
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Managing Time Estimation methods Analogous estimation Estimates are derived based on historical data from similar projects Can be implemented as a form of expert judgement or as a computer model Example method: Case-based Reasoning Designed to deal with situations where historical data does not exist or is
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