2 Item Description Serving Tongs Lead Time Days 20 t ahatt bhatt Week of

2 item description serving tongs lead time days 20 t

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2 Item Description Serving Tongs Lead Time (Days) 20 t a^hat_t b^hat_t Week of 12/28/2015 2,226.0 1 353.0625 389.375 Week of 01/04/2016 1,652.0 2 816.02423 426.168365 Week of 01/11/2016 784.0 3 1319.97008 465.057105 Week of 01/18/2016 644.0 4 1757.20686 451.146944 Week of 01/25/2016 294.0 5 2021.17251 357.556297 Week of 02/01/2016 322.0 6 1929.44959 132.91669 Week of 02/08/2016 700.0 7 1709.27845 -43.6272255 Week of 02/15/2016 1,568.0 8 1632.12837 -60.3886545 Week of 02/22/2016 1,260.0 9 1954.48823 130.985605 Week of 02/29/2016 1,448.0 10 1825.79216 1.14476817 Week of 03/07/2016 1,568.0 11 1816.61516 -4.01611525 Week of 03/14/2016 882.0 12 2138.15904 158.763881 Week of 03/21/2016 1,372.0 13 2155.04264 87.8237416 Week of 03/28/2016 1,260.0 14 2000.97381 -33.1225456 Week of 04/04/2016 1,358.0 15 1885.36802 -74.3641693 Week of 04/11/2016 2,128.0 16 1952.66637 -3.53291085 Week of 04/18/2016 1,806.0 17 2391.06052 217.430621 Week of 04/25/2016 1,470.0 18 2405.01508 115.692588 Week of 05/02/2016 1,134.0 19 2399.6104 55.1439589 Week of 05/09/2016 1,064.0 20 2350.85906 3.19630945 Week of 05/16/2016 1,988.0 21 2223.62767 -62.0175433 Week of 05/23/2016 2,282.0 22 2119.16139 -83.2419095 Week of 05/30/2016 1,694.0 23 2261.69741 29.647056 Week of 06/06/2016 1,848.0 24 2443.65066 105.80015 Week of 06/13/2016 1,064.0 25 2675.51541 168.83245 Week of 06/20/2016 560.0 26 2489.28209 -8.70043508 Week of 06/27/2016 1,400.0 27 2123.17683 -187.402845 Week of 07/04/2016 1,022.0 28 2018.11202 -146.233828 Week of 07/11/2016 1,078.0 29 1830.38325 -166.981299 Week of 07/18/2016 1,274.0 30 1592.07287 -202.645841 Week of 07/25/2016 868.0 31 1506.99205 -143.863329 Week of 08/01/2016 1,176.0 32 1368.00232 -141.42653 Week of 08/08/2016 1,400.0 33 1375.01312 -67.2078667 Week of 08/15/2016 1,470.0 34 1404.94646 -18.6372648 Week of 08/22/2016 1,470.0 35 1526.27708 51.3466807 Week of 08/29/2016 1,540.0 36 1730.05702 127.563308 Week of 09/05/2016 1,106.0 37 1942.58863 170.047463 Week of 09/12/2016 1,596.0 38 1951.77318 89.6160035 Week of 09/19/2016 1,064.0 39 2041.1954 89.5191107 Week of 09/26/2016 1,708.0 40 2010.8962 29.609955 Week of 10/03/2016 1,656.0 41 2113.44765 66.080703 Week of 10/10/2016 1,946.0 42 2178.41109 65.5220731 Week of 10/17/2016 1,344.0 43 2292.77939 89.9451868 Week of 10/24/2016 2,030.0 44 2322.91302 60.0394089 Week of 10/31/2016 1,792.0 45 2455.35611 96.2412469 Week of 11/07/2016 1,652.0 46 2512.0633 76.4742204 Week of 11/14/2016 2,310.0 47 2482.75009 23.5805075 Week of 11/21/2016 2,954.0 48 2744.16173 142.496071 Week of 11/28/2016 1,456.0 49 3080.90459 239.619464
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Week of 12/05/2016 1,064.0 50 3046.29529 102.505082 Week of 12/12/2016 2,842.0 51 2798.64095 -72.5746286 Week of 12/19/2016 2,124.0 52 3004.50543 66.6449275 Week of 12/26/2016 1,458.0 53 2972.68271 17.4111055 Week of 01/02/2017 1,219.0 54 2829.76823 -62.7516889 Week of 01/09/2017 1,260.0 55 2590.53697 -150.991478 Week of 01/16/2017 356.0 56 2280.25702 -230.635712 Week of 01/23/2017 710.0 57 1729.72148 -390.585624 Week of 01/30/2017 1,722.0 58 1299.99974 -410.153685 Week of 02/06/2017 1,414.0 59 1291.73506 -209.209179 Week of 02/13/2017 1,274.0 60 1268.54862 -116.197811 Week of 02/20/2017 2,212.0 61 1335.93948 -24.403477 Week of 02/27/2017 1,750.0 62 1788.41784 214.037444 Week of 03/06/2017 1,512.0 63 2031.05196 228.33578 Week of 03/13/2017 1,288.0 64 2173.52774 185.405782 Week of 03/20/2017 1,512.0 65 2246.49633 129.187184 Week of 03/27/2017 1,862.0 66 2283.3317 83.0112785 Week of 04/03/2017 1,708.0 67 2342.03818 70.8588779 Week of 04/10/2017 1,652.0 68 2364.35672 46.5887113 Week of 04/17/2017 1,162.0 69 2419.11192 50.6719549 Week of 04/24/2017 2,156.0 70 2285.0107 -41.7146357 Week of 05/01/2017 1,750.0 71 2321.04511 -2.84011271 Week of 05/08/2017 2,268.0 72 2310.50884 -6.68818792 Week of 05/15/2017 1,988.0 73 2513.54043 98.1716994 Week of 05/22/2017 2,282.0 74 2675.17886 129.905065 Week of 05/29/2017 1,204.0 75 2779.70839 117.217298 Week of 06/05/2017 2,394.0 76 2632.4895 -15.0007988 Week of 06/12/2017 1,456.0 77 2737.31255 44.9111267 Week of 06/19/2017 1,750.0 78 2642.94588 -24.7277722 Week of 06/26/2017 602.0 79 2509.89196 -78.8908456 Week of 07/03/2017 1,526.0 80 2123.85927 -232.461765 Week of 07/10/2017 1,274.0 81 1902.72289 -226.799073 Week of 07/17/2017 1,036.0 82 1730.40141 -199.560279 Week of 07/24/2017 1,176.0 83 1483.97028 -222.995703 Week of 07/31/2017 1,190.0 84 1432.01564 -137.475171 Week of 08/07/2017 2,170.0 85 1337.29801 -116.096401 Week of 08/14/2017 1,750.0 86 1616.51027 81.5579281 Week of 08/21/2017 1,848.0 87 1813.71192 139.379789 Week of 08/28/2017 1,512.0 88 2144.1827 234.925284 Week of 09/04/2017 1,862.0 89 2272.41652 181.579552 Week of 09/11/2017 2,128.0 90 2387.46749 148.315264 Week of 09/18/2017 714.0 91 2542.87264 151.860205 Week of 09/25/2017 1,876.0 92 2358.8238 -16.0943167 Week of 10/02/2017 2,044.0 93 2359.52278 -7.69766964 Week of 10/09/2017 1,736.0 94 2363.31343 -1.95350737 Week of 10/16/2017 2,212.0 95 2307.20584 -29.0305486 Week of 10/23/2017 1,946.0 96 2581.2037 122.483655 Week of 10/30/2017 1,956.0 97 2662.13536 101.707656 Week of 11/06/2017 1,764.0 98 2669.50841 54.5403523 Week of 11/13/2017 1,890.0 99 2616.41425 0.72309834 Week of 11/20/2017 1,762.0 100 2661.89094 23.0998942
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Holdout Sample t f_t;100 e_t Week of 11/27/2017 2,758.0 101 2291.2097 466.8 Week of 12/04/2017 1,778.0 102 2185.42661 -407.4 Week of 12/11/2017 2,800.0 103 1817.00892 983.0 Week of 12/18/2017 1,456.0 104 2107.21603 -651.2 Week of 12/25/2017 3,122.0 105 2370.05794 751.9 Week of 01/01/2018 2,310.0 106 2259.99298 50.0 Week of 01/08/2018 1,742.0 107 1878.48059 -136.5 Week of 01/15/2018 966.0 108 2177.90787 -1,211.9 RMSE 691.873238
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alpha 0.2 beta 0.5 l^hat_t gamma 0.3 2.0047350873 1.012825857 Month 1 average 1,326.5 0.4763277356 Month 2 average 721.0 0.5061113202 b^hat_0 389.375 2.2216726144 a^hat_0 353.0625 1.0844411571 0.4672781981 0.4498660043 t 1.6008833485 1 0.815623885 2 0.4557610889 3 0.5555830166 4 1.3276517663 5 0.8100627647 6 0.5390351057 7 0.5116899047 8 1.13505608 0.7675352963 0.5859623664 0.62517743 1.0198185091 0.7210545407 0.5548867127 0.5811734132 0.9953050371 0.8074311893 0.5963882324 0.6140338008 0.824943268 0.6443285437 0.6255870681 0.5973295637 0.7805916934 0.7046477746 0.6282615019 0.6747100649 0.8453579625 0.7821918044 0.6946879452 0.7101240315 0.7617498358 0.7821026934 0.6450167568 0.7395342756 0.7612810139 0.8020973423 0.62508689 0.7657031885 0.7469040558
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0.7610854918 0.6900969591 0.8236350249 0.6662201206 0.646815204 0.7668416969 0.7908963542 0.6209250472 0.5939382868 0.7025599747 0.6153714923 0.5984937202 0.8156840107 0.8261898864 0.7168508492 0.789999831 0.8294655476 0.7870259088 0.6737967658 0.7516569579 0.8191360856 0.7676367026 0.6765263059 0.6787193314 0.85206283 0.7645683668 0.7442622895 0.6980418964 0.8427288078 0.6724063814 0.7833577332 0.6538994542 0.7990825158 0.5557183495 0.7889529737 0.6786032245 0.7687959176 0.6353688687 0.819223285 0.877741629 0.8276187679 0.703318265 0.7730675929 0.8483909124 0.8303877874 0.5831307551 0.7796701236 0.8533398574 0.8069990349 0.6652808856 0.7650667259
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e_t^2 [e_t] [e_t]/D_t 217,893.1867 466.790303 0.16924957 165,996.4392 407.426606 0.22914882 966,271.4682 982.991082 0.35106824 424,082.3173 651.21603 0.44726376 565,416.8629 751.942061 0.24085268 2,500.7025 50.0070247 0.02164806 18,626.9514 136.48059 0.07834707 1,468,720.6890 1211.90787 1.25456301 MSE MAD MAPE 478,688.5771 582.345196 0.34901765
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TL Estimate Time Period Month 1 Index Month 2 Index Avg Index 742.4375 Week 1 2.9982321744 0.1278295606 1.56303087 1131.8125 Week 2 1.4596057209 0.1197332032 0.78966946 1521.1875 Week 3 0.5153868277 0.2273696177 0.37137822 1910.5625 Week 4 0.3370735058 0.4521256465 0.39459958 2299.9375 Sum 3.11867813 2689.3125 3078.6875 3468.0625
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Initial Index 2.0047350873 1.012825857 0.4763277356 0.5061113202 4
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Item 2 Item Description
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