If fertility rate is lower than 2.1 that means the society is getting smaller every year. The demographic transition model breaks the societal evolution into four stages based roughly on what’s going on in the society at the time. What are people doing for a living, and therefore what do they think about family size, and therefor how does that affect total population? y-axis have rates per thousand: birth rate (blue) and death rate (red); 10 per thousand, 20, 30, 40. X-axis is showing over time. Going from some place in the past over time and how a society will evolve. STAGE ONE: the pre-modern (pre-history, pre-historical, certainly pre-civilization) This is the stage that humanity found itself in for about a half million years. This hunter-gatherer phase, this nomadic phase where small bands of humans are traveling around the Earth, picking fruits and nuts and berries and hunting game. In this society it’s 100% rural, that’s people living out in the sticks because it’s pre-civilization. Its pre-agriculture. They hunt, gather and life is this society is hard. People are really at mercy of Mother Nature, the mercy of the elements. Flu will kill you, flood will drown you, animals will eat you. Birth rates are extremely high and erratic. Maybe 35 or 45 because of mother nature. It parallels the death rate as well because it’s a good year or a bad year. May be due to drought, flu, just a lot die. Long story short, birth and death rate are both high and erratic. Population total Is quite low. Fertility rate is exceptionally high. Most women would have 10 to 15 babies. Infant mortality is exceptionally high. Longevity rates are very low Examples of this stage: none
Some indigenous tribes in the deep rain forests of Brazil or the Highlands of Papua New Guinea. So there are small groups of people who may still live this way. Most folks have evolved their society into a different stage. STAGE TWO: urbanizing, industrial (hardcore) Advent and dawn of agriculture. So from hunter-gatherers to sedentary, settle down. Agriculturalist farmers growing lots of food. In fact their food source will increase and will be stable year after year. Start with the dawn of civilization, with the agriculturalists, and they’re going to have villages and then those villages turn into towns and then cities, and societies will come more complex and job specialization will occur, tinsmiths, herdsmen and priest and kings and will continue all the way until more modern times where you have industrialization and people making factories.
- Fall '08
- Demography, fertility rate